Olympiakos vs Aris Prediction & Betting Tips 11/10/2026

Olympiakos vs Aris: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	Olympiakos	Draw	Aris
Model	56%	23%	21%
Market	27%	27%	46%
Published	34%	26%	40%
Edge	+29%	-4%	-25%

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.05, recorded 2026-10-06 — the top price across the 5 books we record, each at its own last update.

Olympiakos vs Aris odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Aris, 4 snapshots since 2026-10-05.

Opened 2.00Now 2.00 +0.00

Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
Selection	First	Latest	Move
Olympiakos	3.42	3.37	-0.05
Draw	3.40	3.40	+0.00
Aris	2.00	2.00	+0.00

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Olympiakos and Aris expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

2.02Olympiakos

1.18Aris

Total expected goals: 3.20
Attack rating (Olympiakos / Aris): 1.10 / 0.90
Defence rating (Olympiakos / Aris): 1.09 / 1.24

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Olympiakos vs Aris score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 5.1% 3.8% 2.8% 1.1% 0.4% 1 7.3% 10.7% 5.7% 2.2% 0.9% 2 8.3% 9.8% 5.8% 2.3% 0.9% 3 5.6% 6.6% 3.9% 1.5% 0.6% 4+ 4.5% 5.3% 3.1% 1.2% 0.5%

Rows: Olympiakos goals. Columns: Aris goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Olympiakos vs Aris goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 95%

Over 1.5 84%

Over 2.5 62%

Over 3.5 40%

Both teams to score: 61%
No goals (0–0): 5%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Olympiakos vs Aris

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	Olympiakos	34%	2.91
	Draw	26%	3.84
	Aris	40%	2.53
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	62%	1.61
	Under 2.5	38%	2.63
Both teams to score	Yes	61%	1.64
	No	39%	2.56
Double chance	1X (Olympiakos or draw)	60%	1.66
	12 (either side)	74%	1.35
	X2 (draw or Aris)	66%	1.52
Handicap -1	Aris win by 2+	8%	11.79
	Push (exactly one goal)	12%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

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Where to bet on this match in Kenya

Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit

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