Apoel Nicosia vs Nea Salamis Prediction & Betting Tips 10/10/2026

Apoel Nicosia vs Nea Salamis: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	Apoel Nicosia	Draw	Nea Salamis
Model	42%	23%	36%
Market	66%	21%	13%
Published	60%	21%	19%
Edge	-24%	+2%	+22%

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.44, recorded 2026-10-06 — the top price across the 5 books we record, each at its own last update.

Apoel Nicosia vs Nea Salamis odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Apoel Nicosia, 6 snapshots since 2026-10-04.

Opened 1.40Now 1.40 +0.00

Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
Selection	First	Latest	Move
Apoel Nicosia	1.40	1.40	+0.00
Draw	4.40	4.40	+0.00
Nea Salamis	7.00	6.88	-0.12

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Apoel Nicosia and Nea Salamis expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.99Apoel Nicosia

1.84Nea Salamis

Total expected goals: 3.83
Attack rating (Apoel Nicosia / Nea Salamis): 1.08 / 1.22
Defence rating (Apoel Nicosia / Nea Salamis): 1.25 / 1.25

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Apoel Nicosia vs Nea Salamis score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 3.0% 3.2% 3.7% 2.2% 1.6% 1 3.5% 8.7% 7.3% 4.5% 3.1% 2 4.3% 7.9% 7.3% 4.5% 3.1% 3 2.9% 5.3% 4.8% 3.0% 2.1% 4+ 2.3% 4.1% 3.8% 2.3% 1.6%

Rows: Apoel Nicosia goals. Columns: Nea Salamis goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Apoel Nicosia vs Nea Salamis goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 97%

Over 1.5 90%

Over 2.5 74%

Over 3.5 53%

Both teams to score: 73%
No goals (0–0): 3%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Apoel Nicosia vs Nea Salamis

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	Apoel Nicosia	60%	1.67
	Draw	21%	4.68
	Nea Salamis	19%	5.29
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	74%	1.36
	Under 2.5	26%	3.78
Both teams to score	Yes	73%	1.36
	No	27%	3.76
Double chance	1X (Apoel Nicosia or draw)	81%	1.23
	12 (either side)	79%	1.27
	X2 (draw or Nea Salamis)	40%	2.48
Handicap -1	Apoel Nicosia win by 2+	24%	4.23
	Push (exactly one goal)	18%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

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Where to bet on this match in Kenya

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