Krasava Ypsonas vs Apollon Limassol Prediction & Betting Tips 10/10/2026

Krasava Ypsonas vs Apollon Limassol: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	Krasava Ypsonas	Draw	Apollon Limassol
Model	24%	23%	54%
Market	12%	22%	66%
Published	15%	22%	63%
Edge	+11%	+1%	-12%

Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.13 vs 1.38.
Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.42, recorded 2026-10-06 — the top price across the 5 books we record, each at its own last update.

Krasava Ypsonas vs Apollon Limassol odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Apollon Limassol, 6 snapshots since 2026-10-04.

Opened 1.41Now 1.41 +0.00

Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
Selection	First	Latest	Move
Krasava Ypsonas	7.50	7.50	+0.00
Draw	4.33	4.33	+0.00
Apollon Limassol	1.41	1.41	+0.00

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Krasava Ypsonas and Apollon Limassol expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.38Krasava Ypsonas

2.13Apollon Limassol

Total expected goals: 3.51
Attack rating (Krasava Ypsonas / Apollon Limassol): 0.86 / 1.32
Defence rating (Krasava Ypsonas / Apollon Limassol): 1.35 / 1.09

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Krasava Ypsonas vs Apollon Limassol score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 3.9% 5.5% 6.8% 4.8% 4.2% 1 3.2% 9.7% 9.4% 6.6% 5.8% 2 2.8% 6.1% 6.5% 4.6% 4.0% 3 1.3% 2.8% 3.0% 2.1% 1.8% 4+ 0.6% 1.3% 1.4% 1.0% 0.9%

Rows: Krasava Ypsonas goals. Columns: Apollon Limassol goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Krasava Ypsonas vs Apollon Limassol goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 96%

Over 1.5 87%

Over 2.5 68%

Over 3.5 47%

Both teams to score: 67%
No goals (0–0): 4%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Krasava Ypsonas vs Apollon Limassol

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	Krasava Ypsonas	15%	6.56
	Draw	22%	4.59
	Apollon Limassol	63%	1.59
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	68%	1.47
	Under 2.5	32%	3.14
Both teams to score	Yes	67%	1.50
	No	33%	3.02
Double chance	1X (Krasava Ypsonas or draw)	37%	2.70
	12 (either side)	78%	1.28
	X2 (draw or Apollon Limassol)	85%	1.18
Handicap -1	Apollon Limassol win by 2+	33%	3.02
	Push (exactly one goal)	21%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

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Where to bet on this match in Kenya

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