Karmiotissa vs Omonia Nicosia preview
Karmiotissa faces Omonia Nicosia, with a strong 74% probability for an Omonia win according to the model. The most likely scoreline is 0-1, which aligns with Omonia's expected goals of 1.55 compared to Karmiotissa's 0.72.
Karmiotissa's recent form shows three draws and a loss, while Omonia has won four of their last six matches. However, the 40% chance for Over 2.5 goals and 42% for both teams to score suggest that if Karmiotissa finds a way to convert their chances, it could change the expected outcome. The confidence grade is C, indicating some uncertainty in the predictions.
Karmiotissa vs Omonia Nicosia: model vs market
| Source | Karmiotissa | Draw | Omonia Nicosia |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 16% | 28% | 56% |
| Market | 7% | 13% | 80% |
| Published | 9% | 17% | 74% |
| Edge | +10% | +15% | -24% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.55 vs 0.72.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.18, recorded — the top price across the 5 books we record, each at its own last update.
Karmiotissa vs Omonia Nicosia odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Omonia Nicosia, 8 snapshots since 2026-10-03.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Karmiotissa | 12.00 | 14.00 | +2.00 |
| Draw | 6.00 | 7.00 | +1.00 |
| Omonia Nicosia | 1.20 | 1.14 | -0.06 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Karmiotissa and Omonia Nicosia expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.27
- Attack rating (Karmiotissa / Omonia Nicosia)
- 0.80 / 1.28
- Defence rating (Karmiotissa / Omonia Nicosia)
- 1.01 / 0.61
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Karmiotissa vs Omonia Nicosia score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Karmiotissa goals. Columns: Omonia Nicosia goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Karmiotissa vs Omonia Nicosia goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 42%
- No goals (0–0)
- 11%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Karmiotissa vs Omonia Nicosia
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Karmiotissa | 9% | 11.18 |
| Draw | 17% | 5.96 | |
| Omonia Nicosia | 74% | 1.35 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 40% | 2.52 |
| Under 2.5 | 60% | 1.66 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 42% | 2.40 |
| No | 58% | 1.71 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Karmiotissa or draw) | 26% | 3.89 |
| 12 (either side) | 83% | 1.20 | |
| X2 (draw or Omonia Nicosia) | 91% | 1.10 | |
| Handicap -1 | Omonia Nicosia win by 2+ | 30% | 3.28 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 26% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 2 |  |
First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 4 |  |
200% first deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Karmiotissa and Omonia Nicosia recent form
Karmiotissa
0W 3D 1L
Omonia Nicosia
4W 2D 0L
Last 4 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Karmiotissa at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-1-1
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 0.50
- Goals against / match
- 2.00
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 2
Omonia Nicosia away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-0-0
- Win rate
- 100%
- Goals for / match
- 4.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 1
League matches this season before kick-off: Karmiotissa at home only, Omonia Nicosia away only.
Karmiotissa vs Omonia Nicosia head-to-head
Last 9 meetings: Karmiotissa 0 · draws 1 · Omonia Nicosia 8.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-02-01 | Omonia Nicosia | 3-0 | Karmiotissa | 1. Division |
| 2024-10-28 | Karmiotissa | 2-6 | Omonia Nicosia | 1. Division |
| 2023-12-16 | Omonia Nicosia | 2-1 | Karmiotissa | 1. Division |
| 2023-08-26 | Karmiotissa | 3-3 | Omonia Nicosia | 1. Division |
| 2023-03-05 | Karmiotissa | 1-2 | Omonia Nicosia | 1. Division |
| 2022-12-05 | Omonia Nicosia | 4-0 | Karmiotissa | 1. Division |
| 2022-12-01 | Omonia Nicosia | 2-1 | Karmiotissa | Cup |
| 2020-12-18 | Karmiotissa | 1-5 | Omonia Nicosia | 1. Division |
| 2020-08-30 | Omonia Nicosia | 1-0 | Karmiotissa | 1. Division |
Other Matchday 5 fixtures
- Krasava Ypsonas v Apollon Limassol — match page 2026-10-10
- Apoel Nicosia vs Nea Salamis — team news & stats 2026-10-10
- Anorthosis vs Pafos 2026-10-11
- AEL v Omonia 29is Maiou — match page 2026-10-11
- Olympiakos vs Aris 2026-10-11
- AEK Larnaca v Omonia Aradippou — match page 2026-10-12