AEL vs Omonia 29is Maiou Prediction & Betting Tips 11/10/2026

AEL vs Omonia 29is Maiou: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	AEL	Draw	Omonia 29is Maiou
Model	41%	24%	35%
Market	56%	24%	19%
Published	52%	24%	23%
Edge	-15%	0%	+15%

Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.70, recorded 2026-10-06 — the top price across the 5 books we record, each at its own last update.

AEL vs Omonia 29is Maiou odds movement

Median bookmaker price on AEL, 4 snapshots since 2026-10-05.

Opened 1.65Now 1.65 +0.00

Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
Selection	First	Latest	Move
AEL	1.65	1.65	+0.00
Draw	3.80	3.80	+0.00
Omonia 29is Maiou	4.75	4.75	+0.00

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

AEL and Omonia 29is Maiou expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.84AEL

1.68Omonia 29is Maiou

Total expected goals: 3.52
Attack rating (AEL / Omonia 29is Maiou): 1.07 / 1.28
Defence rating (AEL / Omonia 29is Maiou): 1.09 / 1.17

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

AEL vs Omonia 29is Maiou score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 3.9% 4.1% 4.2% 2.3% 1.4% 1 4.5% 10.1% 7.7% 4.3% 2.6% 2 5.0% 8.4% 7.1% 4.0% 2.4% 3 3.1% 5.2% 4.3% 2.4% 1.5% 4+ 2.1% 3.6% 3.0% 1.7% 1.0%

Rows: AEL goals. Columns: Omonia 29is Maiou goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

AEL vs Omonia 29is Maiou goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 96%

Over 1.5 88%

Over 2.5 68%

Over 3.5 47%

Both teams to score: 69%
No goals (0–0): 4%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for AEL vs Omonia 29is Maiou

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	AEL	52%	1.91
	Draw	24%	4.12
	Omonia 29is Maiou	23%	4.29
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	68%	1.46
	Under 2.5	32%	3.16
Both teams to score	Yes	69%	1.44
	No	31%	3.27
Double chance	1X (AEL or draw)	77%	1.30
	12 (either side)	76%	1.32
	X2 (draw or Omonia 29is Maiou)	48%	2.10
Handicap -1	AEL win by 2+	23%	4.41
	Push (exactly one goal)	19%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Compare the market for this pick

Where to bet on this match in Kenya

Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit

All betting sites

#	Welcome offer	Why it is here	Visit
1	50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply.	M-PESA Paybill 290059 Daily Jackpot Live betting	Get offer
2	First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply.	1,000+ events every day Live betting around the clock 30+ markets on live events	Get offer
3	100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply.	M-Pesa and Airtel Money deposits Live in-play betting Android and iOS app	Get offer
4	200% first deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply.	1,000+ events every day 30+ markets on live events 24/7 customer support	Get offer