Omonia Aradippou vs AEL preview
In the Cyprus 1. Division match between Omonia Aradippou and AEL, the 1X2 probabilities show Omonia Aradippou at 35%, AEL at 36%, and a draw at 29%. The most likely scoreline is 0-1, which occurs at a rate of 9%. Both teams to score is at 51%, indicating a reasonable chance of goals from both sides.
Omonia Aradippou's recent form includes 1 win, 2 draws, and 3 losses, while AEL has 5 wins and 1 loss in their last 6 matches. The expected goals are 1.26 for Omonia Aradippou and 1.16 for AEL, suggesting a close contest. However, if Omonia Aradippou can improve their form, it may challenge AEL's current momentum.
Omonia Aradippou vs AEL: model vs market
| Source | Omonia Aradippou | Draw | AEL |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 37% | 30% | 33% |
| Market | 35% | 28% | 37% |
| Published | 35% | 29% | 36% |
| Edge | +3% | +2% | -4% |
- Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.57, recorded — the top price across the 6 books we record, each at its own last update.
Omonia Aradippou vs AEL odds movement
Median bookmaker price on AEL, 4 snapshots since 2026-10-13.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Omonia Aradippou | 2.64 | 2.64 | +0.00 |
| Draw | 3.28 | 3.26 | -0.02 |
| AEL | 2.48 | 2.49 | +0.01 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Omonia Aradippou and AEL expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.43
- Attack rating (Omonia Aradippou / AEL)
- 0.80 / 1.10
- Defence rating (Omonia Aradippou / AEL)
- 0.87 / 1.08
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Omonia Aradippou vs AEL score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Omonia Aradippou goals. Columns: AEL goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Omonia Aradippou vs AEL goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 51%
- No goals (0–0)
- 10%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Omonia Aradippou vs AEL
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Omonia Aradippou | 35% | 2.82 |
| Draw | 29% | 3.49 | |
| AEL | 36% | 2.79 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 44% | 2.29 |
| Under 2.5 | 56% | 1.78 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 51% | 1.98 |
| No | 49% | 2.02 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Omonia Aradippou or draw) | 64% | 1.56 |
| 12 (either side) | 71% | 1.40 | |
| X2 (draw or AEL) | 65% | 1.55 | |
| Handicap -1 | AEL win by 2+ | 14% | 7.16 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Omonia Aradippou and AEL recent form
Omonia Aradippou
2W 3D 1L
AEL
5W 0D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Omonia Aradippou at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-1-0
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 1.50
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 2
AEL away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-0-1
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 3.00
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 2
League matches this season before kick-off: Omonia Aradippou at home only, AEL away only.
Omonia Aradippou vs AEL head-to-head
Last 3 meetings: Omonia Aradippou 1 · draws 0 · AEL 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-04 | Omonia Aradippou | 0-3 | AEL | Cyprus 1. Division |
| 2026-03-14 | AEL | 1-2 | Omonia Aradippou | Cyprus 1. Division |
| 2025-12-07 | Omonia Aradippou | 1-3 | AEL | Cyprus 1. Division |
Other Matchday 6 fixtures
- Krasava Ypsonas v Karmiotissa — match page 2026-10-17
- Apollon Limassol vs Nea Salamis — team news & stats 2026-10-17
- Aris vs AEK Larnaca — team news & stats 2026-10-18
- Omonia 29is Maiou vs Anorthosis — team news & stats 2026-10-18
- Pafos v Apoel Nicosia — match page 2026-10-19
- Omonia Nicosia vs Olympiakos 2026-10-19
Before and after this match
- Omonia Aradippou, previous: AEK Larnaca – Omonia Aradippou, 2026-10-12
- AEL, previous: AEL vs Omonia 29is Maiou prediction