Apollon Limassol vs Nea Salamis Prediction & Betting Tips 17/10/2026

Apollon Limassol vs Nea Salamis preview

In the fixture between Apollon Limassol and Nea Salamis, the 1X2 probabilities show Apollon Limassol at 55%, while Nea Salamis is at 24%. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, with an 8% chance. Apollon Limassol's expected goals stand at 2.42, compared to Nea Salamis' 1.60.

The model indicates a strong likelihood for Over 2.5 goals at 77% and both teams to score at 73%. However, Apollon Limassol's recent form includes two draws and a loss in the last five matches, which could impact their performance. Nea Salamis, with one win in their last four games, may also struggle to find consistency.

Apollon Limassol vs Nea Salamis: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	Apollon Limassol	Draw	Nea Salamis
Model	62%	19%	19%
Market	69%	19%	11%
Published	67%	19%	13%
Edge	-7%	-1%	+7%

Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.65 vs 1.45.
Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.33, recorded 2026-10-14 — the top price across the 1 books we record, each at its own last update.

Apollon Limassol vs Nea Salamis odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Apollon Limassol, 5 snapshots since 2026-10-12.

Opened 1.33Now 1.33 +0.00

Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
Selection	First	Latest	Move
Apollon Limassol	1.33	1.33	+0.00
Draw	4.75	4.75	+0.00
Nea Salamis	8.00	8.00	+0.00

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Apollon Limassol and Nea Salamis expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

2.65Apollon Limassol

1.45Nea Salamis

Total expected goals: 4.09
Attack rating (Apollon Limassol / Nea Salamis): 1.42 / 1.16
Defence rating (Apollon Limassol / Nea Salamis): 1.03 / 1.27

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Apollon Limassol vs Nea Salamis score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 2.3% 1.8% 1.7% 0.8% 0.4% 1 3.8% 7.0% 4.6% 2.2% 1.1% 2 5.8% 8.5% 6.1% 3.0% 1.5% 3 5.1% 7.5% 5.4% 2.6% 1.3% 4+ 6.4% 9.3% 6.7% 3.3% 1.6%

Rows: Apollon Limassol goals. Columns: Nea Salamis goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Apollon Limassol vs Nea Salamis goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 98%

Over 1.5 92%

Over 2.5 78%

Over 3.5 58%

Both teams to score: 72%
No goals (0–0): 2%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Apollon Limassol vs Nea Salamis

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	Apollon Limassol	67%	1.48
	Draw	19%	5.20
	Nea Salamis	13%	7.51
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	78%	1.29
	Under 2.5	22%	4.45
Both teams to score	Yes	72%	1.39
	No	28%	3.53
Double chance	1X (Apollon Limassol or draw)	87%	1.15
	12 (either side)	81%	1.24
	X2 (draw or Nea Salamis)	33%	3.07
Handicap -1	Apollon Limassol win by 2+	43%	2.34
	Push (exactly one goal)	20%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

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Where to bet on this match in Kenya

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