Atalanta vs Pafos Prediction & Betting Tips 15/10/2026

Atalanta vs Pafos preview

Atalanta faces Pafos with a 55% probability of winning compared to Pafos's 21%. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, which occurs 10% of the time according to our model. Atalanta's recent form shows three losses followed by two wins, while Pafos has a more balanced record with two wins and a draw in their last three matches.

While the model predicts a low-scoring game, there is a 38% chance of Over 2.5 goals and a 46% chance for both teams to score. Atalanta's expected goals are 1.00, while Pafos's are slightly higher at 1.22. This could indicate that Pafos may find a way to score, potentially altering the expected outcome.

Atalanta vs Pafos: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	Atalanta	Draw	Pafos
Model	29%	31%	40%
Market	64%	21%	14%
Published	55%	24%	21%
Edge	-36%	+10%	+25%

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.50, recorded 2026-10-10 — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update.

Atalanta vs Pafos odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Atalanta, 3 snapshots since 2026-10-09.

Opened 1.44Now 1.44 +0.00

Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
Selection	First	Latest	Move
Atalanta	1.44	1.44	+0.00
Draw	4.33	4.38	+0.04
Pafos	6.33	6.47	+0.15

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Atalanta and Pafos expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.00Atalanta

1.22Pafos

Total expected goals: 2.22
Attack rating (Atalanta / Pafos): 0.75 / 0.97
Defence rating (Atalanta / Pafos): 1.06 / 0.81

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Atalanta vs Pafos score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 12.2% 11.9% 8.1% 3.3% 1.3% 1 9.5% 14.6% 8.1% 3.3% 1.3% 2 5.4% 6.6% 4.0% 1.6% 0.7% 3 1.8% 2.2% 1.3% 0.5% 0.2% 4+ 0.6% 0.7% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1%

Rows: Atalanta goals. Columns: Pafos goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Atalanta vs Pafos goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 88%

Over 1.5 66%

Over 2.5 38%

Over 3.5 18%

Both teams to score: 46%
No goals (0–0): 12%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Atalanta vs Pafos

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	Atalanta	55%	1.80
	Draw	24%	4.20
	Pafos	21%	4.82
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	38%	2.61
	Under 2.5	62%	1.62
Both teams to score	Yes	46%	2.18
	No	54%	1.85
Double chance	1X (Atalanta or draw)	79%	1.26
	12 (either side)	76%	1.31
	X2 (draw or Pafos)	45%	2.25
Handicap -1	Atalanta win by 2+	11%	8.98
	Push (exactly one goal)	18%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

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Where to bet on this match in Kenya

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