FC Copenhagen vs SC Braga preview
In the UEFA Europa Conference League, FC Copenhagen has a 61% chance of winning against SC Braga, who has a 12% chance. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, with a 18% probability. FC Copenhagen's expected goals are 1.55, while SC Braga's expected goals stand at 0.55.
Despite FC Copenhagen's strong recent form of six consecutive wins, the confidence grade is C, indicating some uncertainty. Both teams to score has a 34% likelihood, and Over 2.5 goals is at 35%. If SC Braga can improve their scoring, they might challenge Copenhagen's dominance.
FC Copenhagen vs SC Braga: model vs market
| Source | FC Copenhagen | Draw | SC Braga |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 69% | 22% | 9% |
| Market | 40% | 29% | 32% |
| Published | 47% | 27% | 26% |
| Edge | +29% | -7% | -23% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.88 vs 0.55.
- Better recent form: 6 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.
- The market prices FC Copenhagen below the model: +29.1 percentage points of edge.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.50, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update.
FC Copenhagen vs SC Braga odds movement
Median bookmaker price on FC Copenhagen, 3 snapshots since 2026-10-09.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| FC Copenhagen | 2.38 | 2.38 | +0.00 |
| Draw | 3.25 | 3.25 | +0.00 |
| SC Braga | 2.98 | 2.98 | +0.00 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
FC Copenhagen and SC Braga expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.43
- Attack rating (FC Copenhagen / SC Braga)
- 1.61 / 0.85
- Defence rating (FC Copenhagen / SC Braga)
- 0.54 / 0.71
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
FC Copenhagen vs SC Braga score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: FC Copenhagen goals. Columns: SC Braga goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
FC Copenhagen vs SC Braga goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 37%
- No goals (0–0)
- 10%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for FC Copenhagen vs SC Braga
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | FC Copenhagen | 47% | 2.14 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.67 | |
| SC Braga | 26% | 3.85 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 44% | 2.29 |
| Under 2.5 | 56% | 1.78 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 37% | 2.73 |
| No | 63% | 1.58 | |
| Double chance | 1X (FC Copenhagen or draw) | 74% | 1.35 |
| 12 (either side) | 73% | 1.37 | |
| X2 (draw or SC Braga) | 53% | 1.88 | |
| Handicap -1 | FC Copenhagen win by 2+ | 43% | 2.34 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 26% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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| 1 |  |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
FC Copenhagen and SC Braga recent form
FC Copenhagen
6W 0D 0L
SC Braga
3W 1D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
FC Copenhagen at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-0-0
- Win rate
- 100%
- Goals for / match
- 3.67
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 3
- They have won 3 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 2.6 goals per match.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
SC Braga away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-2-0
- Win rate
- 33%
- Goals for / match
- 0.33
- Goals against / match
- 0.00
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 3
- They have won 4 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 5 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 6 penalties (67%).
League matches this season before kick-off: FC Copenhagen at home only, SC Braga away only.
Other League Stage - 1 fixtures
- FC Lugano v FK Crvena Zvezda — match page 2026-10-15
- Brighton vs Kauno Žalgiris 2026-10-15
- Freiburg vs FK Jablonec 2026-10-15
- Heart Of Midlothian vs FC Nordsjaelland — team news & stats 2026-10-15
- Brann vs Lincoln Red Imps FC 2026-10-15
- Twente vs FC Thun — team news & stats 2026-10-15
- Atalanta vs Pafos 2026-10-15
- St. Truiden vs FC Iberia 1999 2026-10-15
Before and after this match
- FC Copenhagen, previous: FC Midtjylland vs FC Copenhagen: odds and pick
- SC Braga, previous: SC Braga vs Sporting CP: odds and pick