St. Truiden vs FC Iberia 1999 preview
In the UEFA Europa Conference League match between St. Truiden and FC Iberia 1999, the 1X2 probabilities show St. Truiden at 62% to win, while FC Iberia 1999 sits at 16%. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, which occurs with a 10% chance according to our model.
St. Truiden has an expected goals figure of 2.22, significantly higher than FC Iberia 1999's 1.08. However, St. Truiden's recent form is mixed with three losses in their last six matches, which could impact their performance. Both teams to score stands at 60%, and Over 2.5 goals is at 64%, indicating potential for a high-scoring game.
St. Truiden vs FC Iberia 1999: model vs market
| Source | St. Truiden | Draw | FC Iberia 1999 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 62% | 21% | 16% |
| Market | 72% | 17% | 10% |
| Published | 70% | 18% | 12% |
| Edge | -10% | +4% | +6% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.22 vs 1.08.
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.32, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update.
St. Truiden vs FC Iberia 1999 odds movement
Median bookmaker price on St. Truiden, 3 snapshots since 2026-10-09.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| St. Truiden | 1.34 | 1.29 | -0.05 |
| Draw | 4.85 | 5.38 | +0.53 |
| FC Iberia 1999 | 7.35 | 9.03 | +1.68 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
St. Truiden and FC Iberia 1999 expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.30
- Attack rating (St. Truiden / FC Iberia 1999)
- 1.10 / 0.80
- Defence rating (St. Truiden / FC Iberia 1999)
- 1.13 / 1.23
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
St. Truiden vs FC Iberia 1999 score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: St. Truiden goals. Columns: FC Iberia 1999 goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
St. Truiden vs FC Iberia 1999 goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 60%
- No goals (0–0)
- 5%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for St. Truiden vs FC Iberia 1999
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | St. Truiden | 70% | 1.43 |
| Draw | 18% | 5.46 | |
| FC Iberia 1999 | 12% | 8.45 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 64% | 1.56 |
| Under 2.5 | 36% | 2.78 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 60% | 1.68 |
| No | 40% | 2.48 | |
| Double chance | 1X (St. Truiden or draw) | 88% | 1.13 |
| 12 (either side) | 82% | 1.22 | |
| X2 (draw or FC Iberia 1999) | 30% | 3.32 | |
| Handicap -1 | St. Truiden win by 2+ | 41% | 2.47 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 2 |  |
First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 4 |  |
200% first deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
St. Truiden and FC Iberia 1999 recent form
St. Truiden
2W 0D 4L
FC Iberia 1999
1W 2D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Other League Stage - 1 fixtures
- FC Lugano v FK Crvena Zvezda — match page 2026-10-15
- Brighton vs Kauno Žalgiris 2026-10-15
- Freiburg vs FK Jablonec 2026-10-15
- Heart Of Midlothian vs FC Nordsjaelland — team news & stats 2026-10-15
- Brann vs Lincoln Red Imps FC 2026-10-15
- FC Copenhagen v SC Braga — match page 2026-10-15
- Twente vs FC Thun — team news & stats 2026-10-15
- Atalanta vs Pafos 2026-10-15
Before and after this match
- St. Truiden, previous: KV Mechelen vs St. Truiden: odds and pick