KV Mechelen vs St. Truiden

KV Mechelen vs St. Truiden: model vs market

• Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.00 vs 1.15.
• Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
• The market prices St. Truiden below the model: +11.2 percentage points of edge.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.17, recorded 2026-10-06 — the top price across the 9 books we record, each at its own last update.

KV Mechelen vs St. Truiden odds movement

Median bookmaker price on St. Truiden, 4 snapshots since 2026-10-05.

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

KV Mechelen and St. Truiden expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

Total expected goals

3.15

Attack rating (KV Mechelen / St. Truiden)

0.66 / 1.13

Defence rating (KV Mechelen / St. Truiden)

1.42 / 1.17

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

KV Mechelen vs St. Truiden score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

Rows: KV Mechelen goals. Columns: St. Truiden goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

KV Mechelen vs St. Truiden goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Both teams to score

60%

No goals (0–0)

5%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

KV Mechelen and St. Truiden recent form

KV Mechelen DLLDLD 0W 3D 3L

St. Truiden LLWLWL 2W 0D 4L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

League matches this season before kick-off: KV Mechelen at home only, St. Truiden away only.