SK Beveren vs Lommel United preview
SK Beveren faces Lommel United with a 50% probability of winning according to the model. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, which reflects a tight match. However, the confidence grade is C, indicating some uncertainty in the predictions.
Both teams have shown mixed recent form, with SK Beveren winning two of their last six matches and Lommel United managing only two wins in their last six. The model suggests a 44% chance for Over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance for both teams to score. This means that while a low-scoring game is expected, factors like defensive errors or a sudden change in form could lead to different outcomes.
SK Beveren vs Lommel United: model vs market
| Source | SK Beveren | Draw | Lommel United |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 47% | 29% | 25% |
| Market | 52% | 25% | 24% |
| Published | 50% | 26% | 24% |
| Edge | -5% | +4% | +1% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.46 vs 1.00.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.82, recorded — the top price across the 9 books we record, each at its own last update.
SK Beveren vs Lommel United odds movement
Median bookmaker price on SK Beveren, 8 snapshots since 2026-10-03.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| SK Beveren | 1.80 | 1.80 | +0.00 |
| Draw | 3.75 | 3.75 | +0.00 |
| Lommel United | 3.90 | 3.90 | +0.00 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
SK Beveren and Lommel United expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.45
- Attack rating (SK Beveren / Lommel United)
- 1.12 / 0.88
- Defence rating (SK Beveren / Lommel United)
- 0.91 / 0.88
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
SK Beveren vs Lommel United score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: SK Beveren goals. Columns: Lommel United goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
SK Beveren vs Lommel United goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 50%
- No goals (0–0)
- 10%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for SK Beveren vs Lommel United
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | SK Beveren | 50% | 1.99 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.88 | |
| Lommel United | 24% | 4.17 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 44% | 2.25 |
| Under 2.5 | 56% | 1.80 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 50% | 2.02 |
| No | 50% | 1.98 | |
| Double chance | 1X (SK Beveren or draw) | 76% | 1.32 |
| 12 (either side) | 74% | 1.35 | |
| X2 (draw or Lommel United) | 50% | 2.01 | |
| Handicap -1 | SK Beveren win by 2+ | 24% | 4.22 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
SK Beveren and Lommel United recent form
SK Beveren
3W 0D 3L
Lommel United
2W 1D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
SK Beveren at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-0-0
- Win rate
- 100%
- Goals for / match
- 2.00
- Goals against / match
- 0.00
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 3
- They have won 3 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 0.3 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 6 matches.
- 42% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Lommel United away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-1-1
- Win rate
- 33%
- Goals for / match
- 0.67
- Goals against / match
- 2.00
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 3
- They have won 2 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They average 1.3 goals per game at home against 0.7 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 6 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: SK Beveren at home only, Lommel United away only.
SK Beveren vs Lommel United head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: SK Beveren 1 · draws 1 · Lommel United 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-08 | SK Beveren | 2-0 | Lommel United | Challenger Pro League |
| 2025-11-07 | Lommel United | 2-2 | SK Beveren | Challenger Pro League |
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