Standard Liege vs Charleroi

Standard Liege vs Charleroi: model vs market

• Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.68 vs 1.31.
• Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.
• The market prices Charleroi below the model: +5.0 percentage points of edge.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.40, recorded 2026-10-06 — the top price across the 9 books we record, each at its own last update.

Standard Liege vs Charleroi odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Charleroi, 4 snapshots since 2026-10-05.

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Standard Liege and Charleroi expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

Total expected goals

2.99

Attack rating (Standard Liege / Charleroi)

1.17 / 1.26

Defence rating (Standard Liege / Charleroi)

1.07 / 0.75

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Standard Liege vs Charleroi score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

Rows: Standard Liege goals. Columns: Charleroi goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Standard Liege vs Charleroi goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Both teams to score

61%

No goals (0–0)

6%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

Standard Liege and Charleroi recent form

Standard Liege LLWWWD 3W 1D 2L

Charleroi WWLWWW 5W 0D 1L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

League matches this season before kick-off: Standard Liege at home only, Charleroi away only.