Brann vs Lincoln Red Imps FC Prediction & Betting Tips 15/10/2026

Brann vs Lincoln Red Imps FC preview

In the UEFA Europa Conference League match between Brann and Lincoln Red Imps FC, the 1X2 probabilities show Brann at 66% to win, while Lincoln Red Imps FC has just a 13% chance. The most likely scoreline is 2-0, predicted at 11%. With expected goals of 2.14 for Brann and only 0.87 for Lincoln Red Imps FC, the data suggests a strong performance from the home side.

However, the confidence grade is C, indicating some uncertainty. While there is a 58% chance of Over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance for both teams to score, any unexpected defensive resilience from Lincoln Red Imps FC could lead to a lower-scoring match than anticipated.

Brann vs Lincoln Red Imps FC: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	Brann	Draw	Lincoln Red Imps FC
Model	60%	24%	16%
Market	82%	12%	6%
Published	76%	15%	9%
Edge	-21%	+11%	+10%

Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.92 vs 0.91.
Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.17, recorded 2026-10-10 — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update.

Brann vs Lincoln Red Imps FC odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Brann, 3 snapshots since 2026-10-09.

Opened 1.15Now 1.14 -0.01

Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
Selection	First	Latest	Move
Brann	1.15	1.14	-0.01
Draw	7.55	7.55	+0.00
Lincoln Red Imps FC	15.27	15.35	+0.08

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Brann and Lincoln Red Imps FC expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.92Brann

0.91Lincoln Red Imps FC

Total expected goals: 2.83
Attack rating (Brann / Lincoln Red Imps FC): 1.09 / 0.81
Defence rating (Brann / Lincoln Red Imps FC): 0.95 / 1.07

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Brann vs Lincoln Red Imps FC score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 6.9% 4.3% 2.4% 0.7% 0.2% 1 10.3% 11.3% 4.7% 1.4% 0.4% 2 10.9% 9.9% 4.5% 1.4% 0.4% 3 7.0% 6.3% 2.9% 0.9% 0.2% 4+ 5.2% 4.7% 2.2% 0.7% 0.2%

Rows: Brann goals. Columns: Lincoln Red Imps FC goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Brann vs Lincoln Red Imps FC goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 93%

Over 1.5 78%

Over 2.5 54%

Over 3.5 32%

Both teams to score: 52%
No goals (0–0): 7%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Brann vs Lincoln Red Imps FC

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	Brann	76%	1.31
	Draw	15%	6.59
	Lincoln Red Imps FC	9%	11.66
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	54%	1.86
	Under 2.5	46%	2.17
Both teams to score	Yes	52%	1.92
	No	48%	2.08
Double chance	1X (Brann or draw)	91%	1.09
	12 (either side)	85%	1.18
	X2 (draw or Lincoln Red Imps FC)	24%	4.21
Handicap -1	Brann win by 2+	37%	2.73
	Push (exactly one goal)	24%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

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Where to bet on this match in Kenya

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