Freiburg vs FK Jablonec preview
In the UEFA Europa Conference League fixture, Freiburg holds a 56% probability of winning against FK Jablonec, who has a 19% chance. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, which aligns with the expected goals of 1.87 for Freiburg and 1.01 for FK Jablonec.
Both teams to score and Over 2.5 goals are both at 55%, indicating a strong likelihood for a high-scoring match. However, if FK Jablonec can improve their recent form, which includes only 1 win in their last 6 matches, they could challenge Freiburg's dominance.
Freiburg vs FK Jablonec: model vs market
| Source | Freiburg | Draw | FK Jablonec |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 56% | 25% | 19% |
| Market | 72% | 18% | 11% |
| Published | 68% | 20% | 13% |
| Edge | -15% | +7% | +8% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.87 vs 1.01.
- Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.35, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update.
Freiburg vs FK Jablonec odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Freiburg, 3 snapshots since 2026-10-09.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Freiburg | 1.30 | 1.29 | -0.01 |
| Draw | 5.20 | 5.17 | -0.03 |
| FK Jablonec | 8.88 | 8.65 | -0.22 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Freiburg and FK Jablonec expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.87
- Attack rating (Freiburg / FK Jablonec)
- 1.45 / 0.88
- Defence rating (Freiburg / FK Jablonec)
- 0.97 / 0.78
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Freiburg vs FK Jablonec score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Freiburg goals. Columns: FK Jablonec goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Freiburg vs FK Jablonec goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 55%
- No goals (0–0)
- 7%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Freiburg vs FK Jablonec
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Freiburg | 68% | 1.48 |
| Draw | 20% | 5.12 | |
| FK Jablonec | 13% | 7.84 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 55% | 1.83 |
| Under 2.5 | 45% | 2.21 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 55% | 1.83 |
| No | 45% | 2.21 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Freiburg or draw) | 87% | 1.15 |
| 12 (either side) | 80% | 1.24 | |
| X2 (draw or FK Jablonec) | 32% | 3.10 | |
| Handicap -1 | Freiburg win by 2+ | 33% | 3.00 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
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Freiburg and FK Jablonec recent form
Freiburg
5W 1D 0L
FK Jablonec
1W 2D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Freiburg at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-0-0
- Win rate
- 100%
- Goals for / match
- 4.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 1
FK Jablonec away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-0-2
- Win rate
- 33%
- Goals for / match
- 1.33
- Goals against / match
- 1.67
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 3
- They have won 3 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Freiburg at home only, FK Jablonec away only.
Other League Stage - 1 fixtures
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- Brighton vs Kauno Žalgiris 2026-10-15
- Heart Of Midlothian vs FC Nordsjaelland — team news & stats 2026-10-15
- Brann vs Lincoln Red Imps FC 2026-10-15
- FC Copenhagen v SC Braga — match page 2026-10-15
- Twente vs FC Thun — team news & stats 2026-10-15
- Atalanta vs Pafos 2026-10-15
- St. Truiden vs FC Iberia 1999 2026-10-15
Before and after this match
- Freiburg, previous: Freiburg – FC Schalke 04, 2026-10-11
- FK Jablonec, previous: Zbrojovka Brno – FK Jablonec, 2026-10-10