Freiburg vs FC Schalke 04 Prediction & Betting Tips 10/10/2026

Freiburg vs FC Schalke 04 preview

Freiburg hosts FC Schalke 04 with a 54% probability of winning according to the model, making them the favorites. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, with a 9% chance, while the market suggests a 51% likelihood for Over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score.

Freiburg's recent form shows six matches without a loss, while Schalke has mixed results, including a recent draw and two wins. The expected goals indicate Freiburg at 1.73 and Schalke at 1.18, suggesting Freiburg may dominate in attack. However, if Schalke's form improves or they manage to capitalize on defensive errors, the outcome could differ from expectations.

Why this pick: Freiburg vs FC Schalke 04

Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Freiburg 10, FC Schalke 04 4). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.

FreiburgFC Schalke 04

1.59 xG per 90 1.64

1.59 npxG per 90 1.64

13.1 PPDA 25.9

6.1 Deep completions per 90 5.5

1.56 xPTS per 90 1.07

xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.

Freiburg vs FC Schalke 04: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	Freiburg	Draw	FC Schalke 04
Model	44%	30%	26%
Market	58%	24%	19%
Published	54%	25%	21%
Edge	-14%	+6%	+8%

Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.73 vs 1.18.
Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.71, recorded 2026-10-06 — the top price across the 9 books we record, each at its own last update.

Freiburg vs FC Schalke 04 odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Freiburg, 38 snapshots since 2026-09-18.

Opened 1.61Now 1.62 +0.01

Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
Selection	First	Latest	Move
Freiburg	1.61	1.62	+0.01
Draw	4.16	3.96	-0.20
FC Schalke 04	4.90	5.00	+0.10

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Freiburg and FC Schalke 04 expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.73Freiburg

1.18FC Schalke 04

Total expected goals: 2.90
Attack rating (Freiburg / FC Schalke 04): 1.28 / 0.93
Defence rating (Freiburg / FC Schalke 04): 0.87 / 0.73

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Freiburg vs FC Schalke 04 score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 8.9% 5.3% 4.5% 1.8% 0.7% 1 7.8% 14.3% 7.0% 2.7% 1.0% 2 7.9% 9.3% 5.4% 2.1% 0.8% 3 4.1% 4.8% 2.8% 1.1% 0.4% 4+ 2.2% 2.6% 1.5% 0.6% 0.2%

Rows: Freiburg goals. Columns: FC Schalke 04 goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Freiburg vs FC Schalke 04 goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 91%

Over 1.5 78%

Over 2.5 51%

Over 3.5 29%

Both teams to score: 57%
No goals (0–0): 9%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Freiburg vs FC Schalke 04

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	Freiburg	54%	1.85
	Draw	25%	3.97
	FC Schalke 04	21%	4.85
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	51%	1.95
	Under 2.5	49%	2.06
Both teams to score	Yes	57%	1.76
	No	43%	2.32
Double chance	1X (Freiburg or draw)	79%	1.26
	12 (either side)	75%	1.34
	X2 (draw or FC Schalke 04)	46%	2.18
Handicap -1	Freiburg win by 2+	23%	4.28
	Push (exactly one goal)	20%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

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Where to bet on this match in Kenya

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