Mainz 05 vs Bayer Leverkusen preview
Mainz 05 faces Bayer Leverkusen with the model showing a 41% chance of an away win for Leverkusen compared to 35% for Mainz. The most likely scoreline is 1-2, with an 80% chance of Over 2.5 goals and 79% for both teams to score. Mainz's expected goals are 2.40, while Leverkusen's are 2.10, indicating a potentially high-scoring match.
However, Mainz's recent form shows 4 wins in their last 6 matches, which could challenge Leverkusen's dominance, as they have won 4 of the last 6 encounters. Mainz has not beaten Leverkusen in their last 6 meetings, which adds pressure. The confidence grade is A, reflecting strong probabilities blended with market odds.
Why this pick: Mainz 05 vs Bayer Leverkusen
Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Mainz 05 10, Bayer Leverkusen 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.
xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.
Mainz 05 vs Bayer Leverkusen: model vs market
| Source | Mainz 05 | Draw | Bayer Leverkusen |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 40% | 23% | 38% |
| Market | 33% | 25% | 43% |
| Published | 35% | 24% | 41% |
| Edge | +7% | -2% | -5% |
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.31, recorded — the top price across the 9 books we record, each at its own last update.
Mainz 05 vs Bayer Leverkusen odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Bayer Leverkusen, 38 snapshots since 2026-09-18.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mainz 05 | 2.73 | 2.88 | +0.15 |
| Draw | 3.74 | 3.85 | +0.11 |
| Bayer Leverkusen | 2.35 | 2.22 | -0.13 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Mainz 05 and Bayer Leverkusen expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 4.50
- Attack rating (Mainz 05 / Bayer Leverkusen)
- 1.62 / 1.42
- Defence rating (Mainz 05 / Bayer Leverkusen)
- 1.02 / 0.80
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Mainz 05 vs Bayer Leverkusen score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Mainz 05 goals. Columns: Bayer Leverkusen goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Mainz 05 vs Bayer Leverkusen goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 79%
- No goals (0–0)
- 3%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Mainz 05 vs Bayer Leverkusen
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Mainz 05 | 35% | 2.89 |
| Draw | 24% | 4.16 | |
| Bayer Leverkusen | 41% | 2.42 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 80% | 1.25 |
| Under 2.5 | 20% | 4.94 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 79% | 1.27 |
| No | 21% | 4.74 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Mainz 05 or draw) | 59% | 1.71 |
| 12 (either side) | 76% | 1.32 | |
| X2 (draw or Bayer Leverkusen) | 65% | 1.53 | |
| Handicap -1 | Bayer Leverkusen win by 2+ | 22% | 4.60 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 16% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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Mainz 05 and Bayer Leverkusen recent form
Mainz 05
4W 1D 1L
Bayer Leverkusen
4W 1D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Mainz 05 at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-1-1
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 0.50
- Goals against / match
- 1.50
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 2
Bayer Leverkusen away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-1-1
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 2.00
- Goals against / match
- 2.50
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 2
League matches this season before kick-off: Mainz 05 at home only, Bayer Leverkusen away only.
Mainz 05 vs Bayer Leverkusen head-to-head
Last 6 meetings: Mainz 05 0 · draws 2 · Bayer Leverkusen 4.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-28 | Bayer Leverkusen | 1-1 | Mainz 05 | Bundesliga |
| 2025-10-18 | Mainz 05 | 3-4 | Bayer Leverkusen | Bundesliga |
| 2025-05-17 | Mainz 05 | 2-2 | Bayer Leverkusen | Bundesliga |
| 2025-01-14 | Bayer Leverkusen | 1-0 | Mainz 05 | Bundesliga |
| 2024-02-23 | Bayer Leverkusen | 2-1 | Mainz 05 | Bundesliga |
| 2023-09-30 | Mainz 05 | 0-3 | Bayer Leverkusen | Bundesliga |
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