Augsburg vs Bayern Munich preview
Augsburg hosts Bayern Munich with a strong likelihood of a Bayern victory, given their 75% win probability compared to Augsburg's 11%. The most likely scoreline is 1-2, which aligns with Bayern's expected goals of 2.76 against Augsburg's 1.62.
The match also shows a high chance for Over 2.5 goals at 79% and both teams to score at 73%. However, Augsburg's recent form includes two losses in their last six matches, which could impact their performance. In contrast, Bayern Munich has won five of their last six games, showcasing their strong form.
Why this pick: Augsburg vs Bayern Munich
Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Augsburg 10, Bayern Munich 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.
xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.
Augsburg vs Bayern Munich: model vs market
| Source | Augsburg | Draw | Bayern Munich |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 17% | 19% | 64% |
| Market | 9% | 12% | 79% |
| Published | 11% | 14% | 75% |
| Edge | +8% | +7% | -15% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.76 vs 1.62.
- Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.22, recorded — the top price across the 9 books we record, each at its own last update.
Augsburg vs Bayern Munich odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Bayern Munich, 38 snapshots since 2026-09-18.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Augsburg | 9.75 | 10.50 | +0.75 |
| Draw | 7.40 | 7.60 | +0.20 |
| Bayern Munich | 1.21 | 1.19 | -0.02 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Augsburg and Bayern Munich expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 4.39
- Attack rating (Augsburg / Bayern Munich)
- 1.17 / 1.73
- Defence rating (Augsburg / Bayern Munich)
- 1.10 / 0.76
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Augsburg vs Bayern Munich score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Augsburg goals. Columns: Bayern Munich goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Augsburg vs Bayern Munich goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 73%
- No goals (0–0)
- 3%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Augsburg vs Bayern Munich
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Augsburg | 11% | 9.10 |
| Draw | 14% | 7.12 | |
| Bayern Munich | 75% | 1.33 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 79% | 1.26 |
| Under 2.5 | 21% | 4.84 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 73% | 1.37 |
| No | 27% | 3.73 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Augsburg or draw) | 25% | 4.00 |
| 12 (either side) | 86% | 1.16 | |
| X2 (draw or Bayern Munich) | 89% | 1.12 | |
| Handicap -1 | Bayern Munich win by 2+ | 45% | 2.23 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
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Augsburg and Bayern Munich recent form
Augsburg
3W 1D 2L
Bayern Munich
5W 1D 0L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Augsburg at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-1-0
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 2.50
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 2
Bayern Munich away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-1-0
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 0.50
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 2
League matches this season before kick-off: Augsburg at home only, Bayern Munich away only.
Augsburg vs Bayern Munich head-to-head
Last 6 meetings: Augsburg 1 · draws 0 · Bayern Munich 5.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-24 | Bayern Munich | 1-2 | Augsburg | Bundesliga |
| 2025-08-30 | Augsburg | 2-3 | Bayern Munich | Bundesliga |
| 2025-04-04 | Augsburg | 1-3 | Bayern Munich | Bundesliga |
| 2024-11-22 | Bayern Munich | 3-0 | Augsburg | Bundesliga |
| 2024-01-27 | Augsburg | 2-3 | Bayern Munich | Bundesliga |
| 2023-08-27 | Bayern Munich | 3-1 | Augsburg | Bundesliga |
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