Union Berlin vs SV Elversberg Prediction & Betting Tips 10/10/2026

Union Berlin vs SV Elversberg preview

In the Bundesliga fixture between Union Berlin and SV Elversberg, the key number is the model's 1X2 probabilities, which show SV Elversberg at 39% to win compared to Union Berlin's 36%. The most likely scoreline is 1-2, with a 9% chance. Union Berlin's recent form includes three losses in their last four matches, while SV Elversberg has won four of their last five games.

The match is expected to see Over 2.5 goals at 76% and both teams to score at 72%. Union Berlin has expected goals of 1.64, while SV Elversberg has a higher expected goals figure of 2.53. This discrepancy could affect the outcome, especially if Union Berlin's defense struggles against Elversberg's attacking form.

Why this pick: Union Berlin vs SV Elversberg

Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Union Berlin 10, SV Elversberg 4). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.

Union BerlinSV Elversberg

1.51 xG per 90 1.56

1.51 npxG per 90 1.56

15.1 PPDA 14.1

6.1 Deep completions per 90 5.8

1.09 xPTS per 90 0.84

xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.

Union Berlin vs SV Elversberg: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	Union Berlin	Draw	SV Elversberg
Model	20%	21%	59%
Market	42%	25%	33%
Published	36%	24%	39%
Edge	-22%	-4%	+26%

Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.53 vs 1.64.
Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
The market prices SV Elversberg below the model: +26.3 percentage points of edge.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 3.07, recorded 2026-10-06 — the top price across the 9 books we record, each at its own last update.

Union Berlin vs SV Elversberg odds movement

Median bookmaker price on SV Elversberg, 38 snapshots since 2026-09-18.

Opened 3.08Now 2.87 -0.21

Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
Selection	First	Latest	Move
Union Berlin	2.15	2.25	+0.10
Draw	3.71	3.70	-0.01
SV Elversberg	3.08	2.87	-0.21

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Union Berlin and SV Elversberg expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.64Union Berlin

2.53SV Elversberg

Total expected goals: 4.18
Attack rating (Union Berlin / SV Elversberg): 0.98 / 1.23
Defence rating (Union Berlin / SV Elversberg): 1.41 / 0.91

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Union Berlin vs SV Elversberg score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 3.2% 3.2% 5.8% 4.9% 5.7% 1 1.3% 8.1% 8.6% 7.3% 8.4% 2 2.0% 5.0% 6.3% 5.4% 6.2% 3 1.0% 2.5% 3.1% 2.6% 3.1% 4+ 0.5% 1.3% 1.6% 1.4% 1.6%

Rows: Union Berlin goals. Columns: SV Elversberg goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Union Berlin vs SV Elversberg goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 97%

Over 1.5 92%

Over 2.5 76%

Over 3.5 57%

Both teams to score: 72%
No goals (0–0): 3%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Union Berlin vs SV Elversberg

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	Union Berlin	36%	2.75
	Draw	24%	4.11
	SV Elversberg	39%	2.54
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	76%	1.31
	Under 2.5	24%	4.23
Both teams to score	Yes	72%	1.38
	No	28%	3.63
Double chance	1X (Union Berlin or draw)	61%	1.65
	12 (either side)	76%	1.32
	X2 (draw or SV Elversberg)	64%	1.57
Handicap -1	SV Elversberg win by 2+	40%	2.51
	Push (exactly one goal)	19%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Compare the market for this pick

Where to bet on this match in Kenya

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