Borussia Dortmund vs Werder Bremen preview
The match between Borussia Dortmund and Werder Bremen has a strong probability favoring Borussia Dortmund at 69% to win. The expected goals suggest Dortmund could score around 2.71, while Werder Bremen is expected to net only 0.92. This aligns with the most likely scoreline of 2-0, which has a 10% chance of occurring.
However, the prediction could be affected if Werder Bremen improves their attacking performance, as they have a 57% chance of both teams scoring. Their recent form shows a mix of results, including a draw and a win, which could provide some momentum. Overall, Dortmund's dominance in their last six encounters, with four wins and two draws, reinforces their strong position heading into this fixture.
Why this pick: Borussia Dortmund vs Werder Bremen
Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Borussia Dortmund 10, Werder Bremen 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.
xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.
Borussia Dortmund vs Werder Bremen: model vs market
| Source | Borussia Dortmund | Draw | Werder Bremen |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 69% | 20% | 11% |
| Market | 69% | 18% | 13% |
| Published | 69% | 18% | 13% |
| Edge | 0% | +2% | -2% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.71 vs 0.92.
- Better recent form: 6 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.41, recorded — the top price across the 9 books we record, each at its own last update.
Borussia Dortmund vs Werder Bremen odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Borussia Dortmund, 38 snapshots since 2026-09-18.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Borussia Dortmund | 1.40 | 1.36 | -0.03 |
| Draw | 5.13 | 5.30 | +0.17 |
| Werder Bremen | 6.58 | 7.09 | +0.51 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Borussia Dortmund and Werder Bremen expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.64
- Attack rating (Borussia Dortmund / Werder Bremen)
- 1.43 / 0.86
- Defence rating (Borussia Dortmund / Werder Bremen)
- 0.74 / 1.03
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Borussia Dortmund vs Werder Bremen score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Borussia Dortmund goals. Columns: Werder Bremen goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Borussia Dortmund vs Werder Bremen goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 57%
- No goals (0–0)
- 5%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Borussia Dortmund vs Werder Bremen
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Borussia Dortmund | 69% | 1.45 |
| Draw | 18% | 5.47 | |
| Werder Bremen | 13% | 7.92 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 65% | 1.53 |
| Under 2.5 | 35% | 2.89 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 57% | 1.77 |
| No | 43% | 2.31 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Borussia Dortmund or draw) | 87% | 1.14 |
| 12 (either side) | 82% | 1.22 | |
| X2 (draw or Werder Bremen) | 31% | 3.23 | |
| Handicap -1 | Borussia Dortmund win by 2+ | 48% | 2.06 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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Borussia Dortmund and Werder Bremen recent form
Borussia Dortmund
6W 0D 0L
Werder Bremen
3W 1D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Borussia Dortmund at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-0-0
- Win rate
- 100%
- Goals for / match
- 2.50
- Goals against / match
- 0.00
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 2
Werder Bremen away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-1-1
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 2.50
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 2
League matches this season before kick-off: Borussia Dortmund at home only, Werder Bremen away only.
Borussia Dortmund vs Werder Bremen head-to-head
Last 6 meetings: Borussia Dortmund 4 · draws 2 · Werder Bremen 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-16 | Werder Bremen | 0-2 | Borussia Dortmund | Bundesliga |
| 2026-01-13 | Borussia Dortmund | 3-0 | Werder Bremen | Bundesliga |
| 2025-01-25 | Borussia Dortmund | 2-2 | Werder Bremen | Bundesliga |
| 2024-08-31 | Werder Bremen | 0-0 | Borussia Dortmund | Bundesliga |
| 2024-03-09 | Werder Bremen | 1-2 | Borussia Dortmund | Bundesliga |
| 2023-10-20 | Borussia Dortmund | 1-0 | Werder Bremen | Bundesliga |
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