SC Paderborn 07 vs VfB Stuttgart Prediction & Betting Tips 10/10/2026

SC Paderborn 07 vs VfB Stuttgart preview

The fixture between SC Paderborn 07 and VfB Stuttgart shows a clear edge for the visitors, with VfB Stuttgart holding a 53% chance to win compared to SC Paderborn 07's 25%. The most likely scoreline is 1-2, which aligns with the high expectations for goals, as the model indicates a strong 73% for Over 2.5 goals and 74% for both teams to score.

While VfB Stuttgart has a better probability of winning, recent form could impact the result. SC Paderborn 07 has won three of their last five matches, while VfB Stuttgart has had mixed results with three wins in their last six. If Paderborn can capitalize on their home advantage, the expected goals of 2.24 for them could lead to a tighter contest than predicted.

Why this pick: SC Paderborn 07 vs VfB Stuttgart

Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (SC Paderborn 07 4, VfB Stuttgart 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.

SC Paderborn 07VfB Stuttgart

0.77 xG per 90 2.04

0.77 npxG per 90 1.96

18.4 PPDA 13.7

5.0 Deep completions per 90 7.8

0.73 xPTS per 90 1.11

xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.

SC Paderborn 07 vs VfB Stuttgart: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	SC Paderborn 07	Draw	VfB Stuttgart
Model	42%	24%	33%
Market	20%	21%	59%
Published	25%	22%	53%
Edge	+23%	+3%	-26%

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.64, recorded 2026-10-06 — the top price across the 9 books we record, each at its own last update.

SC Paderborn 07 vs VfB Stuttgart odds movement

Median bookmaker price on VfB Stuttgart, 38 snapshots since 2026-09-18.

Opened 1.62Now 1.59 -0.03

Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
Selection	First	Latest	Move
SC Paderborn 07	4.55	4.80	+0.25
Draw	4.41	4.50	+0.09
VfB Stuttgart	1.62	1.59	-0.03

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

SC Paderborn 07 and VfB Stuttgart expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

2.24SC Paderborn 07

1.78VfB Stuttgart

Total expected goals: 4.02
Attack rating (SC Paderborn 07 / VfB Stuttgart): 0.99 / 1.23
Defence rating (SC Paderborn 07 / VfB Stuttgart): 1.00 / 1.23

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

SC Paderborn 07 vs VfB Stuttgart score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 3.9% 2.4% 3.6% 2.1% 1.4% 1 2.9% 9.7% 7.2% 4.3% 2.8% 2 4.6% 8.1% 7.2% 4.3% 2.8% 3 3.1% 5.5% 4.9% 2.9% 1.9% 4+ 2.5% 4.4% 3.9% 2.3% 1.5%

Rows: SC Paderborn 07 goals. Columns: VfB Stuttgart goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

SC Paderborn 07 vs VfB Stuttgart goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 96%

Over 1.5 91%

Over 2.5 73%

Over 3.5 52%

Both teams to score: 74%
No goals (0–0): 4%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for SC Paderborn 07 vs VfB Stuttgart

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	SC Paderborn 07	25%	3.94
	Draw	22%	4.58
	VfB Stuttgart	53%	1.89
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	73%	1.37
	Under 2.5	27%	3.70
Both teams to score	Yes	74%	1.36
	No	26%	3.79
Double chance	1X (SC Paderborn 07 or draw)	47%	2.12
	12 (either side)	78%	1.28
	X2 (draw or VfB Stuttgart)	75%	1.34
Handicap -1	VfB Stuttgart win by 2+	18%	5.64
	Push (exactly one goal)	15%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

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Where to bet on this match in Kenya

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