RasenBallsport Leipzig vs Eintracht Frankfurt preview
RasenBallsport Leipzig hosts Eintracht Frankfurt with a 57% probability of winning according to the model. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, which reflects Leipzig's expected goals of 2.63 compared to Frankfurt's 2.15. The high likelihood of Over 2.5 goals at 83% and both teams to score at 81% suggests an attacking match.
However, Leipzig's recent form shows inconsistency with two losses in their last five matches, while Frankfurt has drawn in three of their last six games. The head-to-head record is close, with Leipzig winning three of the last six encounters. This could mean Frankfurt has a chance to upset the expectations, making the outcome less predictable.
Why this pick: RasenBallsport Leipzig vs Eintracht Frankfurt
Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (RasenBallsport Leipzig 10, Eintracht Frankfurt 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.
xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.
RasenBallsport Leipzig vs Eintracht Frankfurt: model vs market
| Source | RasenBallsport Leipzig | Draw | Eintracht Frankfurt |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 43% | 22% | 35% |
| Market | 62% | 20% | 18% |
| Published | 57% | 20% | 23% |
| Edge | -18% | +1% | +17% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.63 vs 2.15.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.58, recorded — the top price across the 9 books we record, each at its own last update.
RasenBallsport Leipzig vs Eintracht Frankfurt odds movement
Median bookmaker price on RasenBallsport Leipzig, 38 snapshots since 2026-09-18.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| RasenBallsport Leipzig | 1.53 | 1.53 | +0.00 |
| Draw | 4.72 | 4.70 | -0.02 |
| Eintracht Frankfurt | 5.12 | 5.10 | -0.03 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
RasenBallsport Leipzig and Eintracht Frankfurt expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 4.78
- Attack rating (RasenBallsport Leipzig / Eintracht Frankfurt)
- 1.31 / 1.42
- Defence rating (RasenBallsport Leipzig / Eintracht Frankfurt)
- 1.04 / 1.09
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
RasenBallsport Leipzig vs Eintracht Frankfurt score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: RasenBallsport Leipzig goals. Columns: Eintracht Frankfurt goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
RasenBallsport Leipzig vs Eintracht Frankfurt goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 81%
- No goals (0–0)
- 2%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for RasenBallsport Leipzig vs Eintracht Frankfurt
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | RasenBallsport Leipzig | 57% | 1.76 |
| Draw | 20% | 4.90 | |
| Eintracht Frankfurt | 23% | 4.41 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 83% | 1.21 |
| Under 2.5 | 17% | 5.82 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 81% | 1.23 |
| No | 19% | 5.31 | |
| Double chance | 1X (RasenBallsport Leipzig or draw) | 77% | 1.29 |
| 12 (either side) | 80% | 1.26 | |
| X2 (draw or Eintracht Frankfurt) | 43% | 2.32 | |
| Handicap -1 | RasenBallsport Leipzig win by 2+ | 27% | 3.77 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 17% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
RasenBallsport Leipzig and Eintracht Frankfurt recent form
RasenBallsport Leipzig
3W 0D 3L
Eintracht Frankfurt
2W 3D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
RasenBallsport Leipzig at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-0-0
- Win rate
- 100%
- Goals for / match
- 4.00
- Goals against / match
- 0.00
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 2
Eintracht Frankfurt away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-1-0
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 3.00
- Goals against / match
- 2.00
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 2
League matches this season before kick-off: RasenBallsport Leipzig at home only, Eintracht Frankfurt away only.
RasenBallsport Leipzig vs Eintracht Frankfurt head-to-head
Last 6 meetings: RasenBallsport Leipzig 3 · draws 1 · Eintracht Frankfurt 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-18 | Eintracht Frankfurt | 1-3 | RasenBallsport Leipzig | Bundesliga |
| 2025-12-06 | RasenBallsport Leipzig | 6-0 | Eintracht Frankfurt | Bundesliga |
| 2025-04-26 | Eintracht Frankfurt | 4-0 | RasenBallsport Leipzig | Bundesliga |
| 2024-12-15 | RasenBallsport Leipzig | 2-1 | Eintracht Frankfurt | Bundesliga |
| 2024-05-18 | Eintracht Frankfurt | 2-2 | RasenBallsport Leipzig | Bundesliga |
| 2024-01-13 | RasenBallsport Leipzig | 0-1 | Eintracht Frankfurt | Bundesliga |
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