FC Cologne vs Borussia M.Gladbach preview
FC Cologne hosts Borussia M.Gladbach with a 49% probability of winning, compared to 28% for the visitors. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, with an 8% chance. Both teams are showing mixed recent form, but FC Cologne has a slight edge with two wins in their last five matches, while Borussia M.Gladbach has won only two of their last six.
The match has a strong expectation for goals, with 79% for Over 2.5 goals and 76% for both teams to score. FC Cologne's expected goals stand at 2.71, while Borussia M.Gladbach's is 1.73. If FC Cologne's defense struggles or if Borussia M.Gladbach improves their form, the expected outcome could change.
Why this pick: FC Cologne vs Borussia M.Gladbach
Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (FC Cologne 10, Borussia M.Gladbach 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.
xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.
FC Cologne vs Borussia M.Gladbach: model vs market
| Source | FC Cologne | Draw | Borussia M.Gladbach |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 52% | 22% | 26% |
| Market | 47% | 24% | 29% |
| Published | 49% | 23% | 28% |
| Edge | +5% | -2% | -3% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.71 vs 1.73.
- The market prices FC Cologne below the model: +4.9 percentage points of edge.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.04, recorded — the top price across the 9 books we record, each at its own last update.
FC Cologne vs Borussia M.Gladbach odds movement
Median bookmaker price on FC Cologne, 38 snapshots since 2026-09-18.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| FC Cologne | 1.85 | 1.98 | +0.13 |
| Draw | 3.96 | 3.90 | -0.06 |
| Borussia M.Gladbach | 3.77 | 3.28 | -0.50 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
FC Cologne and Borussia M.Gladbach expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 4.45
- Attack rating (FC Cologne / Borussia M.Gladbach)
- 1.18 / 1.09
- Defence rating (FC Cologne / Borussia M.Gladbach)
- 1.10 / 1.25
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
FC Cologne vs Borussia M.Gladbach score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: FC Cologne goals. Columns: Borussia M.Gladbach goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
FC Cologne vs Borussia M.Gladbach goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 76%
- No goals (0–0)
- 3%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for FC Cologne vs Borussia M.Gladbach
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | FC Cologne | 49% | 2.06 |
| Draw | 23% | 4.26 | |
| Borussia M.Gladbach | 28% | 3.58 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 79% | 1.27 |
| Under 2.5 | 21% | 4.68 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 76% | 1.31 |
| No | 24% | 4.25 | |
| Double chance | 1X (FC Cologne or draw) | 72% | 1.39 |
| 12 (either side) | 77% | 1.31 | |
| X2 (draw or Borussia M.Gladbach) | 51% | 1.95 | |
| Handicap -1 | FC Cologne win by 2+ | 34% | 2.96 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 18% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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FC Cologne and Borussia M.Gladbach recent form
FC Cologne
2W 1D 3L
Borussia M.Gladbach
2W 0D 4L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
FC Cologne at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-1-0
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 2.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.50
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 2
Borussia M.Gladbach away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-0-2
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 0.00
- Goals against / match
- 4.00
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 2
League matches this season before kick-off: FC Cologne at home only, Borussia M.Gladbach away only.
FC Cologne vs Borussia M.Gladbach head-to-head
Last 4 meetings: FC Cologne 1 · draws 2 · Borussia M.Gladbach 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-21 | FC Cologne | 3-3 | Borussia M.Gladbach | Bundesliga |
| 2025-11-08 | Borussia M.Gladbach | 3-1 | FC Cologne | Bundesliga |
| 2024-03-09 | Borussia M.Gladbach | 3-3 | FC Cologne | Bundesliga |
| 2023-10-22 | FC Cologne | 3-1 | Borussia M.Gladbach | Bundesliga |
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