Zbrojovka Brno vs FK Jablonec preview
Zbrojovka Brno takes on FK Jablonec in the Czech Liga, with a 37% chance of a home win according to the model. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, which occurs 11% of the time. Both teams to score has a 47% probability, indicating a decent chance for goals from both sides, but Zbrojovka Brno's expected goals are slightly higher at 1.18 compared to FK Jablonec's 1.08.
Recent form shows Zbrojovka Brno winning four of their last six matches, while FK Jablonec has struggled, with only one win in their last six games. This contrast in form could influence the outcome, but the confidence grade is C, suggesting uncertainty in the predictions. The market may reflect this variability in the odds.
Zbrojovka Brno vs FK Jablonec: model vs market
| Source | Zbrojovka Brno | Draw | FK Jablonec |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 37% | 31% | 32% |
| Market | 38% | 28% | 35% |
| Published | 37% | 28% | 34% |
| Edge | -1% | +4% | -3% |
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.49, recorded — the top price across the 8 books we record, each at its own last update.
Zbrojovka Brno vs FK Jablonec odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Zbrojovka Brno, 6 snapshots since 2026-10-04.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Zbrojovka Brno | 2.46 | 2.45 | -0.01 |
| Draw | 3.38 | 3.34 | -0.04 |
| FK Jablonec | 2.63 | 2.63 | +0.00 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Zbrojovka Brno and FK Jablonec expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.27
- Attack rating (Zbrojovka Brno / FK Jablonec)
- 1.02 / 0.92
- Defence rating (Zbrojovka Brno / FK Jablonec)
- 0.95 / 0.81
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Zbrojovka Brno vs FK Jablonec score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Zbrojovka Brno goals. Columns: FK Jablonec goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Zbrojovka Brno vs FK Jablonec goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 47%
- No goals (0–0)
- 12%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Zbrojovka Brno vs FK Jablonec
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Zbrojovka Brno | 37% | 2.68 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.52 | |
| FK Jablonec | 34% | 2.92 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 40% | 2.53 |
| Under 2.5 | 60% | 1.65 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 47% | 2.12 |
| No | 53% | 1.90 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Zbrojovka Brno or draw) | 66% | 1.52 |
| 12 (either side) | 72% | 1.40 | |
| X2 (draw or FK Jablonec) | 63% | 1.60 | |
| Handicap -1 | Zbrojovka Brno win by 2+ | 16% | 6.18 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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Zbrojovka Brno and FK Jablonec recent form
Zbrojovka Brno
4W 0D 2L
FK Jablonec
1W 2D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Zbrojovka Brno at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-0-1
- Win rate
- 80%
- Goals for / match
- 1.80
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 5
- They have won 5 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
FK Jablonec away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-1-2
- Win rate
- 25%
- Goals for / match
- 0.75
- Goals against / match
- 1.25
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 4
- They have won 4 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 8 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Zbrojovka Brno at home only, FK Jablonec away only.
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