Sparta Praha vs Pardubice: model vs market
| Source | Sparta Praha | Draw | Pardubice |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 60% | 23% | 18% |
| Market | 71% | 18% | 12% |
| Published | 68% | 19% | 13% |
| Edge | -11% | +5% | +6% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.07 vs 1.06.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.33, recorded — the top price across the 6 books we record, each at its own last update.
Sparta Praha vs Pardubice odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Sparta Praha, 4 snapshots since 2026-10-05.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sparta Praha | 1.31 | 1.31 | +0.00 |
| Draw | 5.12 | 5.12 | +0.00 |
| Pardubice | 7.95 | 7.97 | +0.03 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Sparta Praha and Pardubice expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.14
- Attack rating (Sparta Praha / Pardubice)
- 1.42 / 0.96
- Defence rating (Sparta Praha / Pardubice)
- 0.89 / 1.02
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Sparta Praha vs Pardubice score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Sparta Praha goals. Columns: Pardubice goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Sparta Praha vs Pardubice goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 58%
- No goals (0–0)
- 5%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Sparta Praha vs Pardubice
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Sparta Praha | 68% | 1.48 |
| Draw | 19% | 5.23 | |
| Pardubice | 13% | 7.63 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 61% | 1.65 |
| Under 2.5 | 39% | 2.54 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 58% | 1.72 |
| No | 42% | 2.39 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Sparta Praha or draw) | 87% | 1.15 |
| 12 (either side) | 81% | 1.24 | |
| X2 (draw or Pardubice) | 32% | 3.10 | |
| Handicap -1 | Sparta Praha win by 2+ | 37% | 2.69 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 2 |  |
First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 4 |  |
200% first deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Sparta Praha and Pardubice recent form
Sparta Praha
4W 0D 2L
Pardubice
2W 2D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Sparta Praha at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-0-1
- Win rate
- 75%
- Goals for / match
- 2.25
- Goals against / match
- 1.25
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 4
- They have won 4 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.9 goals per match.
- They average 2.2 goals per game at home against 1.5 on the road.
- They have converted 2 of 3 penalties (67%).
Pardubice away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-1-3
- Win rate
- 20%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.60
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 5
- They have won 1 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
League matches this season before kick-off: Sparta Praha at home only, Pardubice away only.
Sparta Praha vs Pardubice head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: Sparta Praha 1 · draws 0 · Pardubice 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-30 | Sparta Praha | 2-4 | Pardubice | Czech Liga |
| 2025-08-03 | Pardubice | 1-3 | Sparta Praha | Czech Liga |
Other Matchday 10 fixtures
- Zlin v Slavia Praha — match page 2026-10-09
- Plzen vs Mlada Boleslav 2026-10-10
- Hradec Králové vs Artis 2026-10-10
- Zbrojovka Brno v FK Jablonec — match page 2026-10-10
- Bohemians 1905 v Baník Ostrava — match page 2026-10-10
- Slovan Liberec vs Slovácko 2026-10-11
- Teplice vs Sigma Olomouc — team news & stats 2026-10-11