Teplice vs Sigma Olomouc: model vs market
| Source | Teplice | Draw | Sigma Olomouc |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 42% | 24% | 34% |
| Market | 36% | 27% | 37% |
| Published | 38% | 26% | 36% |
| Edge | +6% | -3% | -3% |
- The market prices Teplice below the model: +6.1 percentage points of edge.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.60, recorded — the top price across the 6 books we record, each at its own last update.
Teplice vs Sigma Olomouc odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Teplice, 4 snapshots since 2026-10-05.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Teplice | 2.54 | 2.54 | +0.00 |
| Draw | 3.40 | 3.40 | +0.00 |
| Sigma Olomouc | 2.53 | 2.52 | -0.00 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Teplice and Sigma Olomouc expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.54
- Attack rating (Teplice / Sigma Olomouc)
- 1.27 / 1.32
- Defence rating (Teplice / Sigma Olomouc)
- 1.01 / 1.03
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Teplice vs Sigma Olomouc score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Teplice goals. Columns: Sigma Olomouc goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Teplice vs Sigma Olomouc goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 70%
- No goals (0–0)
- 4%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Teplice vs Sigma Olomouc
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Teplice | 38% | 2.64 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.80 | |
| Sigma Olomouc | 36% | 2.79 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 69% | 1.46 |
| Under 2.5 | 31% | 3.19 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 70% | 1.44 |
| No | 30% | 3.29 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Teplice or draw) | 64% | 1.56 |
| 12 (either side) | 74% | 1.36 | |
| X2 (draw or Sigma Olomouc) | 62% | 1.61 | |
| Handicap -1 | Teplice win by 2+ | 24% | 4.23 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
|
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| 2 |  |
First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
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| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
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| 4 |  |
200% first deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Teplice and Sigma Olomouc recent form
Teplice
3W 0D 3L
Sigma Olomouc
4W 0D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Teplice at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-1-2
- Win rate
- 40%
- Goals for / match
- 2.00
- Goals against / match
- 2.00
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 5
- They have won 4 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.9 goals per match.
- 39% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Sigma Olomouc away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-0-2
- Win rate
- 60%
- Goals for / match
- 1.60
- Goals against / match
- 1.40
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 5
- They have won 5 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 2.0 goals per match.
- They average 2.7 goals per game at home against 1.6 on the road.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Teplice at home only, Sigma Olomouc away only.
Teplice vs Sigma Olomouc head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: Teplice 0 · draws 1 · Sigma Olomouc 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-22 | Teplice | 1-3 | Sigma Olomouc | Czech Liga |
| 2025-09-20 | Sigma Olomouc | 0-0 | Teplice | Czech Liga |
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