Plzen vs Mlada Boleslav preview
Plzen hosts Mlada Boleslav in the Czech Liga with a 53% probability for a Plzen win according to the model 1X2. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, which reflects a 6% chance. Both teams to score and Over 2.5 goals are each at 65%, indicating a strong likelihood of an open game.
However, Plzen's recent form shows three losses in their last four matches, which could impact their performance. Mlada Boleslav, on the other hand, has won four of their last six games. This contrast in form might challenge the expected outcome, making the match less predictable despite the statistical edge for Plzen.
Plzen vs Mlada Boleslav: model vs market
| Source | Plzen | Draw | Mlada Boleslav |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 25% | 24% | 51% |
| Market | 62% | 21% | 17% |
| Published | 53% | 21% | 26% |
| Edge | -37% | +3% | +34% |
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.53, recorded — the top price across the 8 books we record, each at its own last update.
Plzen vs Mlada Boleslav odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Plzen, 6 snapshots since 2026-10-04.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plzen | 1.49 | 1.48 | -0.01 |
| Draw | 4.60 | 4.50 | -0.10 |
| Mlada Boleslav | 5.30 | 5.38 | +0.08 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Plzen and Mlada Boleslav expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.34
- Attack rating (Plzen / Mlada Boleslav)
- 1.17 / 1.24
- Defence rating (Plzen / Mlada Boleslav)
- 1.28 / 0.81
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Plzen vs Mlada Boleslav score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Plzen goals. Columns: Mlada Boleslav goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Plzen vs Mlada Boleslav goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 65%
- No goals (0–0)
- 4%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Plzen vs Mlada Boleslav
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Plzen | 53% | 1.89 |
| Draw | 21% | 4.70 | |
| Mlada Boleslav | 26% | 3.90 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 65% | 1.54 |
| Under 2.5 | 35% | 2.85 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 65% | 1.54 |
| No | 35% | 2.86 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Plzen or draw) | 74% | 1.35 |
| 12 (either side) | 79% | 1.27 | |
| X2 (draw or Mlada Boleslav) | 47% | 2.13 | |
| Handicap -1 | Plzen win by 2+ | 11% | 8.93 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 14% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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Plzen and Mlada Boleslav recent form
Plzen
1W 2D 3L
Mlada Boleslav
4W 1D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Plzen at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-2-2
- Win rate
- 20%
- Goals for / match
- 1.60
- Goals against / match
- 2.00
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 5
- They have won 2 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 2.0 goals per match.
- They average 2.7 goals per game on the road against 1.6 at home.
- They have converted 2 of 3 penalties (67%).
Mlada Boleslav away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-2-1
- Win rate
- 25%
- Goals for / match
- 1.75
- Goals against / match
- 2.00
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 4
- They have won 4 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 2.1 goals per match.
- They average 2.7 goals per game at home against 1.8 on the road.
League matches this season before kick-off: Plzen at home only, Mlada Boleslav away only.
Plzen vs Mlada Boleslav head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: Plzen 2 · draws 0 · Mlada Boleslav 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-30 | Plzen | 2-1 | Mlada Boleslav | Czech Liga |
| 2025-08-19 | Mlada Boleslav | 0-5 | Plzen | Czech Liga |
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