Slovan Liberec vs Slovácko: model vs market
| Source | Slovan Liberec | Draw | Slovácko |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 56% | 29% | 15% |
| Market | 64% | 22% | 14% |
| Published | 62% | 23% | 14% |
| Edge | -8% | +7% | +1% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.49 vs 0.65.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.47, recorded — the top price across the 6 books we record, each at its own last update.
Slovan Liberec vs Slovácko odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Slovan Liberec, 4 snapshots since 2026-10-05.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Slovan Liberec | 1.44 | 1.44 | +0.00 |
| Draw | 4.25 | 4.25 | +0.00 |
| Slovácko | 6.54 | 6.55 | +0.01 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Slovan Liberec and Slovácko expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.14
- Attack rating (Slovan Liberec / Slovácko)
- 0.95 / 0.83
- Defence rating (Slovan Liberec / Slovácko)
- 0.63 / 1.09
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Slovan Liberec vs Slovácko score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Slovan Liberec goals. Columns: Slovácko goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Slovan Liberec vs Slovácko goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 38%
- No goals (0–0)
- 13%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Slovan Liberec vs Slovácko
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Slovan Liberec | 62% | 1.61 |
| Draw | 23% | 4.27 | |
| Slovácko | 14% | 6.97 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 36% | 2.77 |
| Under 2.5 | 64% | 1.56 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 38% | 2.62 |
| No | 62% | 1.62 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Slovan Liberec or draw) | 86% | 1.17 |
| 12 (either side) | 77% | 1.31 | |
| X2 (draw or Slovácko) | 38% | 2.65 | |
| Handicap -1 | Slovan Liberec win by 2+ | 30% | 3.34 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 26% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
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| 1 |  |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Slovan Liberec and Slovácko recent form
Slovan Liberec
4W 2D 0L
Slovácko
0W 3D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Slovan Liberec at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-1-1
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 1.50
- Goals against / match
- 0.50
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 4
- They have won 6 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 8 matches.
Slovácko away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-1-4
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 0.60
- Goals against / match
- 2.20
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 5
- They have won 0 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 0.6 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 8 matches.
- 43% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Slovan Liberec at home only, Slovácko away only.
Slovan Liberec vs Slovácko head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: Slovan Liberec 2 · draws 0 · Slovácko 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-04 | Slovan Liberec | 2-1 | Slovácko | Czech Liga |
| 2025-11-01 | Slovácko | 0-3 | Slovan Liberec | Czech Liga |
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