Heart Of Midlothian vs FC Nordsjaelland preview
In the UEFA Europa Conference League match between Heart Of Midlothian and FC Nordsjaelland, the 1X2 probabilities show FC Nordsjaelland at 44%, Heart Of Midlothian at 31%, and a draw at 25%. The most likely scoreline is 1-2, with a 9% chance.
The model indicates a strong possibility for Over 2.5 goals at 63% and both teams to score at 65%. Heart Of Midlothian has expected goals of 1.48, while FC Nordsjaelland has 1.78. However, the confidence grade is C, suggesting that unexpected outcomes could arise, impacting these predictions.
Heart Of Midlothian vs FC Nordsjaelland: model vs market
| Source | Heart Of Midlothian | Draw | FC Nordsjaelland |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 31% | 26% | 42% |
| Market | 33% | 26% | 41% |
| Published | 32% | 26% | 42% |
| Edge | -2% | +1% | +1% |
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.35, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update.
Heart Of Midlothian vs FC Nordsjaelland odds movement
Median bookmaker price on FC Nordsjaelland, 3 snapshots since 2026-10-09.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Heart Of Midlothian | 2.83 | 2.85 | +0.01 |
| Draw | 3.67 | 3.64 | -0.02 |
| FC Nordsjaelland | 2.28 | 2.27 | -0.01 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Heart Of Midlothian and FC Nordsjaelland expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.97
- Attack rating (Heart Of Midlothian / FC Nordsjaelland)
- 1.09 / 1.24
- Defence rating (Heart Of Midlothian / FC Nordsjaelland)
- 1.09 / 0.75
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Heart Of Midlothian vs FC Nordsjaelland score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Heart Of Midlothian goals. Columns: FC Nordsjaelland goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Heart Of Midlothian vs FC Nordsjaelland goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 60%
- No goals (0–0)
- 6%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Heart Of Midlothian vs FC Nordsjaelland
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Heart Of Midlothian | 32% | 3.08 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.85 | |
| FC Nordsjaelland | 42% | 2.41 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 57% | 1.76 |
| Under 2.5 | 43% | 2.32 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 60% | 1.65 |
| No | 40% | 2.53 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Heart Of Midlothian or draw) | 58% | 1.71 |
| 12 (either side) | 74% | 1.35 | |
| X2 (draw or FC Nordsjaelland) | 68% | 1.48 | |
| Handicap -1 | FC Nordsjaelland win by 2+ | 22% | 4.49 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Heart Of Midlothian and FC Nordsjaelland recent form
Heart Of Midlothian
3W 2D 1L
FC Nordsjaelland
2W 2D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Heart Of Midlothian at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-1-0
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 2.00
- Goals against / match
- 2.00
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 1
FC Nordsjaelland away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-0-1
- Win rate
- 67%
- Goals for / match
- 1.67
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 3
- They have won 4 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 2.8 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 5 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Heart Of Midlothian at home only, FC Nordsjaelland away only.
Other League Stage - 1 fixtures
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- FC Copenhagen v SC Braga — match page 2026-10-15
- Twente vs FC Thun — team news & stats 2026-10-15
- Atalanta vs Pafos 2026-10-15
- St. Truiden vs FC Iberia 1999 2026-10-15
Before and after this match
- Heart Of Midlothian, previous: Heart Of Midlothian – ST Mirren, 2026-10-10
- FC Nordsjaelland, previous: FC Nordsjaelland vs Odense prediction