Heart Of Midlothian vs ST Mirren preview
Heart Of Midlothian faces ST Mirren with a 62% probability of winning according to the model. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, which aligns with the expectation of 54% for Over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score. However, recent form shows Heart Of Midlothian has drawn and lost some matches, while ST Mirren has a mix of losses and a recent win, which could influence the outcome.
Heart Of Midlothian's expected goals stand at 1.77, while ST Mirren's is lower at 1.06. This suggests that Heart Of Midlothian is likely to create more scoring opportunities. Yet, the confidence grade is C, indicating some uncertainty in the predictions. The match could swing either way based on how both teams perform on the day.
Heart Of Midlothian vs ST Mirren: model vs market
| Source | Heart Of Midlothian | Draw | ST Mirren |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 53% | 26% | 21% |
| Market | 65% | 20% | 15% |
| Published | 62% | 21% | 17% |
| Edge | -12% | +6% | +6% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.77 vs 1.06.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.47, recorded — the top price across the 8 books we record, each at its own last update.
Heart Of Midlothian vs ST Mirren odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Heart Of Midlothian, 36 snapshots since 2026-09-19.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Heart Of Midlothian | 1.54 | 1.44 | -0.10 |
| Draw | 4.15 | 4.65 | +0.50 |
| ST Mirren | 5.50 | 6.03 | +0.53 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Heart Of Midlothian and ST Mirren expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.83
- Attack rating (Heart Of Midlothian / ST Mirren)
- 1.12 / 0.78
- Defence rating (Heart Of Midlothian / ST Mirren)
- 1.13 / 1.04
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Heart Of Midlothian vs ST Mirren score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Heart Of Midlothian goals. Columns: ST Mirren goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Heart Of Midlothian vs ST Mirren goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 55%
- No goals (0–0)
- 7%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Heart Of Midlothian vs ST Mirren
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Heart Of Midlothian | 62% | 1.62 |
| Draw | 21% | 4.68 | |
| ST Mirren | 17% | 5.90 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 54% | 1.86 |
| Under 2.5 | 46% | 2.17 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 55% | 1.81 |
| No | 45% | 2.24 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Heart Of Midlothian or draw) | 83% | 1.20 |
| 12 (either side) | 79% | 1.27 | |
| X2 (draw or ST Mirren) | 38% | 2.61 | |
| Handicap -1 | Heart Of Midlothian win by 2+ | 30% | 3.31 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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Heart Of Midlothian and ST Mirren recent form
Heart Of Midlothian
3W 2D 1L
ST Mirren
2W 1D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Heart Of Midlothian at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-0-0
- Win rate
- 100%
- Goals for / match
- 2.67
- Goals against / match
- 0.67
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 3
- They have won 4 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 2.2 goals per match.
- They average 2.7 goals per game at home against 1.7 on the road.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
ST Mirren away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-0-1
- Win rate
- 67%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 0.33
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 3
- They have won 3 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They average 1.7 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 6 matches.
- 60% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Heart Of Midlothian at home only, ST Mirren away only.
Heart Of Midlothian vs ST Mirren head-to-head
Last 4 meetings: Heart Of Midlothian 1 · draws 2 · ST Mirren 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-03 | ST Mirren | 1-0 | Heart Of Midlothian | Scotland Premiership |
| 2026-01-14 | Heart Of Midlothian | 2-0 | ST Mirren | Scotland Premiership |
| 2025-10-29 | ST Mirren | 2-2 | Heart Of Midlothian | Scotland Premiership |
| 2025-02-10 | ST Mirren | 1-1 | Heart Of Midlothian | Scotland FA Cup |
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