Aberdeen vs ST Johnstone Prediction & Betting Tips 11/10/2026

Aberdeen vs ST Johnstone: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	Aberdeen	Draw	ST Johnstone
Model	32%	31%	37%
Market	43%	28%	28%
Published	40%	29%	30%
Edge	-12%	+3%	+9%

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.22, recorded 2026-10-06 — the top price across the 8 books we record, each at its own last update.

Aberdeen vs ST Johnstone odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Aberdeen, 36 snapshots since 2026-09-19.

Opened 2.15Now 2.15 +0.00

Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
Selection	First	Latest	Move
Aberdeen	2.15	2.15	+0.00
Draw	3.30	3.29	-0.01
ST Johnstone	3.30	3.30	+0.00

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Aberdeen and ST Johnstone expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.07Aberdeen

1.18ST Johnstone

Total expected goals: 2.25
Attack rating (Aberdeen / ST Johnstone): 0.89 / 1.04
Defence rating (Aberdeen / ST Johnstone): 0.94 / 0.80

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Aberdeen vs ST Johnstone score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 11.8% 11.1% 7.3% 2.9% 1.1% 1 9.9% 14.6% 7.9% 3.1% 1.2% 2 6.0% 7.1% 4.2% 1.7% 0.6% 3 2.2% 2.5% 1.5% 0.6% 0.2% 4+ 0.7% 0.9% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1%

Rows: Aberdeen goals. Columns: ST Johnstone goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Aberdeen vs ST Johnstone goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 88%

Over 1.5 67%

Over 2.5 39%

Over 3.5 19%

Both teams to score: 47%
No goals (0–0): 12%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Aberdeen vs ST Johnstone

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	Aberdeen	40%	2.47
	Draw	29%	3.44
	ST Johnstone	30%	3.28
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	39%	2.55
	Under 2.5	61%	1.64
Both teams to score	Yes	47%	2.13
	No	53%	1.88
Double chance	1X (Aberdeen or draw)	70%	1.44
	12 (either side)	71%	1.41
	X2 (draw or ST Johnstone)	60%	1.68
Handicap -1	Aberdeen win by 2+	13%	7.78
	Push (exactly one goal)	19%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

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Where to bet on this match in Kenya

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Aberdeen and ST Johnstone recent form

Aberdeen 1W 2D 3L

ST Johnstone 1W 2D 3L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Aberdeen at home

Record (W-D-L): 1-1-1
Win rate: 33%
Goals for / match: 0.67
Goals against / match: 0.67
Clean sheets: 1 of 3

They have won 2 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
They average 1.3 goals per game on the road against 0.7 at home.
They have failed to score in 4 of 6 matches.

ST Johnstone away

Record (W-D-L): 0-1-2
Win rate: 0%
Goals for / match: 0.67
Goals against / match: 1.33
Clean sheets: 0 of 3

They have won 2 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 0.7 on the road.

League matches this season before kick-off: Aberdeen at home only, ST Johnstone away only.

Other Matchday 8 fixtures

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Falkirk vs Dundee 2026-10-10
Motherwell vs Celtic 2026-10-11

Prediction snapshot Aberdeen to win Predicted score 1 – 0 C Bet on Aberdeen