FC Lugano vs FK Crvena Zvezda preview
In the UEFA Europa Conference League, FC Lugano has a 57% chance to win against FK Crvena Zvezda, who has a 19% chance. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, with a 10% probability. The model suggests a high likelihood of Over 2.5 goals at 59% and both teams to score at 58%.
FC Lugano's expected goals stand at 1.96, while FK Crvena Zvezda's is lower at 1.08. Recent form shows FC Lugano with five wins and one draw, while FK Crvena Zvezda has five wins and one draw as well. The confidence grade for this match is C, indicating some uncertainty in the predictions.
FC Lugano vs FK Crvena Zvezda: model vs market
| Source | FC Lugano | Draw | FK Crvena Zvezda |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 57% | 24% | 19% |
| Market | 34% | 27% | 40% |
| Published | 40% | 26% | 35% |
| Edge | +23% | -3% | -20% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.96 vs 1.08.
- The market prices FC Lugano below the model: +23.1 percentage points of edge.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.88, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update.
FC Lugano vs FK Crvena Zvezda odds movement
Median bookmaker price on FC Lugano, 3 snapshots since 2026-10-09.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| FC Lugano | 2.76 | 2.76 | +0.00 |
| Draw | 3.52 | 3.52 | +0.00 |
| FK Crvena Zvezda | 2.37 | 2.37 | +0.00 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
FC Lugano and FK Crvena Zvezda expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.04
- Attack rating (FC Lugano / FK Crvena Zvezda)
- 1.92 / 1.29
- Defence rating (FC Lugano / FK Crvena Zvezda)
- 0.70 / 0.62
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
FC Lugano vs FK Crvena Zvezda score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: FC Lugano goals. Columns: FK Crvena Zvezda goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
FC Lugano vs FK Crvena Zvezda goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 58%
- No goals (0–0)
- 6%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for FC Lugano vs FK Crvena Zvezda
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | FC Lugano | 40% | 2.52 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.87 | |
| FK Crvena Zvezda | 35% | 2.90 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 59% | 1.71 |
| Under 2.5 | 41% | 2.41 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 58% | 1.73 |
| No | 42% | 2.36 | |
| Double chance | 1X (FC Lugano or draw) | 65% | 1.53 |
| 12 (either side) | 74% | 1.35 | |
| X2 (draw or FK Crvena Zvezda) | 60% | 1.66 | |
| Handicap -1 | FC Lugano win by 2+ | 34% | 2.90 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
FC Lugano and FK Crvena Zvezda recent form
FC Lugano
5W 1D 0L
FK Crvena Zvezda
5W 1D 0L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
FC Lugano at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-0-0
- Win rate
- 100%
- Goals for / match
- 1.67
- Goals against / match
- 0.33
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 3
- They have won 4 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 2.4 goals per match.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: FC Lugano at home only, FK Crvena Zvezda away only.
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Before and after this match
- FC Lugano, previous: FC Lugano – FC Luzern, 2026-10-10
- FC Lugano, next: Pully Football – FC Lugano, 2026-10-18
- FK Crvena Zvezda, previous: Radnicki 1923 vs FK Crvena Zvezda prediction