Egnatia Rrogozhinë vs FC Midtjylland Prediction & Betting Tips 15/10/2026

Egnatia Rrogozhinë vs FC Midtjylland preview

Egnatia Rrogozhinë faces FC Midtjylland with a 40% probability for the visitors to win and a 35% chance for the home side. The most likely scoreline is 1-2, with a 9% likelihood. Both teams to score stands at 66%, while Over 2.5 goals has a 64% chance according to our model.

Egnatia Rrogozhinë has an expected goals figure of 1.57, while FC Midtjylland is slightly higher at 1.71. Recent form shows Egnatia with three wins and three losses in their last six matches, while FC Midtjylland has three wins and three draws. The confidence grade for this match is C, indicating some uncertainty in the predictions.

Egnatia Rrogozhinë vs FC Midtjylland: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	Egnatia Rrogozhinë	Draw	FC Midtjylland
Model	35%	25%	40%
Market	16%	23%	61%
Published	21%	23%	56%
Edge	+19%	+2%	-21%

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.57, recorded 2026-10-10 — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update.

Egnatia Rrogozhinë vs FC Midtjylland odds movement

Median bookmaker price on FC Midtjylland, 3 snapshots since 2026-10-09.

Opened 1.52Now 1.52 +0.00

Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
Selection	First	Latest	Move
Egnatia Rrogozhinë	5.85	5.85	+0.00
Draw	4.12	4.12	+0.00
FC Midtjylland	1.52	1.52	+0.00

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Egnatia Rrogozhinë and FC Midtjylland expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.57Egnatia Rrogozhinë

1.71FC Midtjylland

Total expected goals: 3.28
Attack rating (Egnatia Rrogozhinë / FC Midtjylland): 1.35 / 1.61
Defence rating (Egnatia Rrogozhinë / FC Midtjylland): 0.89 / 0.70

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Egnatia Rrogozhinë vs FC Midtjylland score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 4.8% 5.4% 5.5% 3.1% 2.0% 1 4.9% 11.1% 8.6% 4.9% 3.1% 2 4.6% 7.9% 6.8% 3.9% 2.4% 3 2.4% 4.1% 3.5% 2.0% 1.3% 4+ 1.4% 2.3% 2.0% 1.1% 0.7%

Rows: Egnatia Rrogozhinë goals. Columns: FC Midtjylland goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Egnatia Rrogozhinë vs FC Midtjylland goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 95%

Over 1.5 85%

Over 2.5 64%

Over 3.5 41%

Both teams to score: 66%
No goals (0–0): 5%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Egnatia Rrogozhinë vs FC Midtjylland

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	Egnatia Rrogozhinë	21%	4.85
	Draw	23%	4.29
	FC Midtjylland	56%	1.78
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	64%	1.57
	Under 2.5	36%	2.74
Both teams to score	Yes	66%	1.52
	No	34%	2.92
Double chance	1X (Egnatia Rrogozhinë or draw)	44%	2.28
	12 (either side)	77%	1.30
	X2 (draw or FC Midtjylland)	79%	1.26
Handicap -1	FC Midtjylland win by 2+	21%	4.66
	Push (exactly one goal)	19%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

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Where to bet on this match in Kenya

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