Updated

Denmark Superliga · Matchday 10

FC Midtjylland vs FC Copenhagen

· MCH Arena, Herning· Referee Jacob Karlsen

Full time2 – 1

Alin prediction was FC Copenhagen to win

Cblended with market oddsMissed

Predicted score 1 – 2

9% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
FC MidtjyllandDrawFC Copenhagen

FC Midtjylland vs FC Copenhagen: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceFC MidtjyllandDrawFC Copenhagen
Model32%28%40%
Market37%26%37%
Published36%26%38%
Edge-1%+1%+1%
  • Better recent form: 6 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

FC Midtjylland vs FC Copenhagen odds movement

Median bookmaker price on FC Copenhagen, 17 snapshots since 2026-10-03.

Opened 2.50Now 2.51 +0.00
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
FC Midtjylland2.472.53+0.06
Draw3.603.60+0.00
FC Copenhagen2.502.51+0.00

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

FC Midtjylland and FC Copenhagen expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.27FC Midtjylland
1.45FC Copenhagen
Total expected goals
2.72
Attack rating (FC Midtjylland / FC Copenhagen)
1.50 / 1.50
Defence rating (FC Midtjylland / FC Copenhagen)
0.67 / 0.52

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

FC Midtjylland vs FC Copenhagen score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 7.8% 8.3% 6.9% 3.4% 1.7% 1 7.1% 13.3% 8.8% 4.3% 2.1% 2 5.3% 7.7% 5.6% 2.7% 1.4% 3 2.2% 3.3% 2.4% 1.1% 0.6% 4+ 0.9% 1.4% 1.0% 0.5% 0.2%

Rows: FC Midtjylland goals. Columns: FC Copenhagen goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

FC Midtjylland vs FC Copenhagen goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 92%
Over 1.5 77%
Over 2.5 51%
Over 3.5 29%
Both teams to score
56%
No goals (0–0)
8%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for FC Midtjylland vs FC Copenhagen

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2FC Midtjylland36%2.81
Draw26%3.78
FC Copenhagen38%2.63
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.551%1.94
Under 2.549%2.06
Both teams to scoreYes56%1.77
No44%2.30
Double chance1X (FC Midtjylland or draw)62%1.61
12 (either side)74%1.36
X2 (draw or FC Copenhagen)64%1.55
Handicap -1FC Copenhagen win by 2+20%5.02
Push (exactly one goal)20%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

FC Midtjylland and FC Copenhagen recent form

FC Midtjylland 3W 3D 0L
FC Copenhagen 6W 0D 0L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

FC Midtjylland at home

Record (W-D-L)
3-1-0
Win rate
75%
Goals for / match
2.25
Goals against / match
1.00
Clean sheets
1 of 4
  • They have won 5 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.9 goals per match.
  • They average 2.2 goals per game at home against 1.6 on the road.
  • 40% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

FC Copenhagen away

Record (W-D-L)
4-0-1
Win rate
80%
Goals for / match
2.60
Goals against / match
1.00
Clean sheets
3 of 5
  • They have won 8 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 2.6 goals per match.
  • They have kept 5 clean sheets in 9 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
  • 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

League matches this season before kick-off: FC Midtjylland at home only, FC Copenhagen away only.

Injuries & availability

FC Midtjylland absences

  • A. Ndiaye suspended
  • D. Beni inactive
  • Hong Hyun-Seok knock
  • Junior Brumado knee injury
  • M. B. Sorensen knock
  • M. Erlic foot injury
  • M. Gogorza hip injury
  • O. Diao foot injury
  • R. Kristensen yellow cards

FC Copenhagen absences

  • M. Mattsson knee injury

Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.

Expected lineups

FC Midtjylland lineup · 3-5-2

  1. 25 N. Bakker
  2. 22 M. Bech
  3. 2 A. Maxsø
  4. 4 O. Diao
  5. 98 D. Martínez
  6. 19 P. Bravo
  7. 21 D. Castillo
  8. 8 P. Billing
  9. 29 K. Wätjen
  10. 90 F. Etim
  11. 18 S. Iheanacho

Bench: M. Rajović, Cho Gue-Sung, B. Dje Bi Dje, M. Uhre, Hong Hyun-Seok, S. Johannesen, O. Ejeheri, J. Emefile

FC Copenhagen lineup · 4-2-3-1

  1. 1 D. Ramaj
  2. 15 M. López
  3. 6 A. Markgráf
  4. 4 A. Sørensen
  5. 2 F. Beijmo
  6. 27 T. Delaney
  7. 36 W. Clem
  8. 16 Robert
  9. 10 M. Elyounoussi
  10. 33 A. Král
  11. 14 A. Cornelius

Bench: T. Maseko, R. Huescas, J. Suzuki, B. Meling, Hunor Vajk Németh, R. Rúnarsson, M. Nasnas, V. Dadason, G. Vianney

FC Midtjylland vs FC Copenhagen head-to-head

Last 10 meetings: FC Midtjylland 6 · draws 3 · FC Copenhagen 1.

FC MidtjyllandDrawsFC Copenhagen
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-05-14FC Copenhagen0-1FC MidtjyllandDBU Pokalen
2026-02-08FC Midtjylland2-1FC CopenhagenDenmark Superliga
2025-10-05FC Copenhagen1-1FC MidtjyllandDenmark Superliga
2025-05-11FC Copenhagen1-1FC MidtjyllandSuperliga
2025-04-17FC Midtjylland4-2FC CopenhagenSuperliga
2025-02-23FC Copenhagen1-0FC MidtjyllandSuperliga
2024-09-14FC Midtjylland2-1FC CopenhagenSuperliga
2024-05-16FC Copenhagen1-2FC MidtjyllandSuperliga
2024-04-14FC Midtjylland2-2FC CopenhagenSuperliga
2024-03-01FC Midtjylland2-0FC CopenhagenSuperliga

Other Matchday 10 fixtures

Before and after this match