FC Midtjylland vs FC Copenhagen: model vs market
| Source | FC Midtjylland | Draw | FC Copenhagen |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 32% | 28% | 40% |
| Market | 37% | 26% | 37% |
| Published | 36% | 26% | 38% |
| Edge | -6% | +2% | +3% |
- Better recent form: 6 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.
- The market prices FC Copenhagen below the model: +3.3 percentage points of edge.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.65, recorded — the top price across the 9 books we record, each at its own last update.
FC Midtjylland vs FC Copenhagen odds movement
Median bookmaker price on FC Copenhagen, 8 snapshots since 2026-10-03.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| FC Midtjylland | 2.47 | 2.47 | +0.00 |
| Draw | 3.60 | 3.60 | +0.00 |
| FC Copenhagen | 2.50 | 2.50 | -0.00 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
FC Midtjylland and FC Copenhagen expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.73
- Attack rating (FC Midtjylland / FC Copenhagen)
- 1.50 / 1.51
- Defence rating (FC Midtjylland / FC Copenhagen)
- 0.67 / 0.52
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
FC Midtjylland vs FC Copenhagen score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: FC Midtjylland goals. Columns: FC Copenhagen goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
FC Midtjylland vs FC Copenhagen goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 56%
- No goals (0–0)
- 8%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for FC Midtjylland vs FC Copenhagen
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | FC Midtjylland | 36% | 2.78 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.81 | |
| FC Copenhagen | 38% | 2.65 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 51% | 1.95 |
| Under 2.5 | 49% | 2.05 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 56% | 1.77 |
| No | 44% | 2.29 | |
| Double chance | 1X (FC Midtjylland or draw) | 62% | 1.61 |
| 12 (either side) | 74% | 1.36 | |
| X2 (draw or FC Copenhagen) | 64% | 1.56 | |
| Handicap -1 | FC Copenhagen win by 2+ | 20% | 5.01 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
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| 1 |  |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
FC Midtjylland and FC Copenhagen recent form
FC Midtjylland
3W 3D 0L
FC Copenhagen
6W 0D 0L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
FC Midtjylland at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-1-0
- Win rate
- 75%
- Goals for / match
- 2.25
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 4
- They have won 5 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 2.0 goals per match.
- They average 2.2 goals per game at home against 1.8 on the road.
- 46% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
FC Copenhagen away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-0-1
- Win rate
- 80%
- Goals for / match
- 2.60
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 5
- They have won 7 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 2.8 goals per match.
- They average 3.0 goals per game on the road against 2.5 at home.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 8 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: FC Midtjylland at home only, FC Copenhagen away only.
FC Midtjylland vs FC Copenhagen head-to-head
Last 3 meetings: FC Midtjylland 2 · draws 1 · FC Copenhagen 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-14 | FC Copenhagen | 0-1 | FC Midtjylland | DBU Pokalen |
| 2026-02-08 | FC Midtjylland | 2-1 | FC Copenhagen | Denmark Superliga |
| 2025-10-05 | FC Copenhagen | 1-1 | FC Midtjylland | Denmark Superliga |
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