Updated

Denmark Superliga · Matchday 10

Aarhus vs Sonderjyske

· Vejlby Stadion, Aarhus· Referee Mads-Kristoffer Kristoffersen

Full time3 – 0

Alin prediction was Aarhus to win

Cblended with market oddsCorrect

Predicted score 2 – 1

8% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
AarhusDrawSonderjyske

Aarhus vs Sonderjyske: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceAarhusDrawSonderjyske
Model51%21%28%
Market61%22%18%
Published58%21%20%
Edge-2%0%+3%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.35 vs 1.75.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Aarhus vs Sonderjyske odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Aarhus, 20 snapshots since 2026-10-03.

Opened 1.60Now 1.54 -0.06
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Aarhus1.601.54-0.06
Draw4.254.33+0.08
Sonderjyske4.755.25+0.50

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Aarhus and Sonderjyske expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

2.35Aarhus
1.75Sonderjyske
Total expected goals
4.10
Attack rating (Aarhus / Sonderjyske)
1.10 / 1.00
Defence rating (Aarhus / Sonderjyske)
1.21 / 1.30

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Aarhus vs Sonderjyske score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 2.3% 2.2% 2.5% 1.5% 1.0% 1 3.2% 7.5% 6.0% 3.5% 2.3% 2 4.6% 8.0% 7.0% 4.1% 2.6% 3 3.6% 6.3% 5.5% 3.2% 2.1% 4+ 3.7% 6.4% 5.6% 3.3% 2.1%

Rows: Aarhus goals. Columns: Sonderjyske goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Aarhus vs Sonderjyske goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 98%
Over 1.5 92%
Over 2.5 78%
Over 3.5 58%
Both teams to score
75%
No goals (0–0)
2%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Aarhus vs Sonderjyske

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Aarhus58%1.72
Draw21%4.67
Sonderjyske20%4.91
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.578%1.29
Under 2.522%4.45
Both teams to scoreYes75%1.33
No25%4.06
Double chance1X (Aarhus or draw)80%1.26
12 (either side)79%1.27
X2 (draw or Sonderjyske)42%2.39
Handicap -1Aarhus win by 2+32%3.15
Push (exactly one goal)19%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Aarhus and Sonderjyske recent form

Aarhus 1W 2D 3L
Sonderjyske 2W 1D 3L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Aarhus at home

Record (W-D-L)
0-3-1
Win rate
0%
Goals for / match
1.25
Goals against / match
1.75
Clean sheets
0 of 4
  • They have won 0 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
  • 57% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Sonderjyske away

Record (W-D-L)
0-1-3
Win rate
0%
Goals for / match
1.00
Goals against / match
2.00
Clean sheets
0 of 4
  • They have won 1 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
  • They average 1.6 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
  • They have failed to score in 3 of 9 matches.
  • 35% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

League matches this season before kick-off: Aarhus at home only, Sonderjyske away only.

Injuries & availability

Aarhus absences

  • C. McCowatt injury
  • G. Links knock
  • K. Yakob knee injury
  • N. Poulsen achilles tendon injury
  • O. Haugstrup knock
  • T. Kristjansson broken hand

Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.

Expected lineups

Aarhus lineup · 3-4-2-1

  1. 1 J. Hansen
  2. 3 D. Grétarsson
  3. 5 F. Tingager
  4. 14 T. Mølgaard
  5. 39 Frederik Emmery
  6. 10 Kristian Fredrik Malt Arnstad
  7. 4 M. Knudsen
  8. 29 R. Carstensen
  9. 23 M. Anderson
  10. 31 T. Bech
  11. 13 J. Serra

Bench: M. Solbakken, S. Jørgensen, C. McCowatt, E. Kahl, M. Hedenstad Christiansen, C. Rösler, J. Andersen, S. Tchamche, J. Bogere

Sonderjyske lineup · 4-2-3-1

  1. 24 N. Shinton
  2. 19 P. Kristensen
  3. 25 B. Bjarnason
  4. 12 M. Soulas
  5. 3 A. Munksgaard
  6. 10 M. Olesen
  7. 7 S. Emini
  8. 17 A. Hoeg
  9. 8 M. Haidara
  10. 31 I. Seydi
  11. 11 O. De Rosario

Bench: N. Flø, M. Hoppe, T. Haltvik, S. Velkov, A. Oggesen, B. Tambedou, G. Wagner, J. Christensen, Elias Hjort- Pedersen

Aarhus vs Sonderjyske head-to-head

Last 9 meetings: Aarhus 6 · draws 2 · Sonderjyske 1.

AarhusDrawsSonderjyske
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-05-03Aarhus2-1SonderjyskeDenmark Superliga
2026-03-15Sonderjyske1-1AarhusDenmark Superliga
2025-11-09Aarhus2-3SonderjyskeDenmark Superliga
2025-10-29Aarhus2-1SonderjyskeDBU Pokalen
2025-07-20Sonderjyske1-1AarhusDenmark Superliga
2025-02-16Sonderjyske1-4AarhusSuperliga
2024-08-02Aarhus4-0SonderjyskeSuperliga
2023-01-13Sonderjyske1-5AarhusFriendlies Clubs
2023-01-13Aarhus5-1SonderjyskeFriendlies Clubs

Other Matchday 10 fixtures

Before and after this match