Gent vs Aarhus Prediction & Betting Tips 15/10/2026

Gent vs Aarhus preview

Gent faces Aarhus with a strong 66% probability of winning, while Aarhus has just a 13% chance. The most likely scoreline is 2-0, which aligns with Gent's expected goals of 2.22 compared to Aarhus's 0.91. With 61% for Over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score, there is potential for a high-scoring match.

However, Gent's confidence grade is C, indicating some uncertainty in their performance. Aarhus's recent form shows only 1 win in their last 6 matches, which could impact their ability to find the net. If Gent underperforms or Aarhus exceeds expectations, the predictions could change.

Gent vs Aarhus: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	Gent	Draw	Aarhus
Model	66%	21%	13%
Market	58%	23%	19%
Published	60%	23%	17%
Edge	+8%	-3%	-6%

Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.22 vs 0.91.
Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
The market prices Gent below the model: +8.4 percentage points of edge.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.67, recorded 2026-10-10 — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update.

Gent vs Aarhus odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Gent, 3 snapshots since 2026-10-09.

Opened 1.62Now 1.62 +0.00

Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
Selection	First	Latest	Move
Gent	1.62	1.62	+0.00
Draw	3.99	3.99	+0.00
Aarhus	4.97	4.97	+0.00

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Gent and Aarhus expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

2.22Gent

0.91Aarhus

Total expected goals: 3.13
Attack rating (Gent / Aarhus): 1.04 / 1.18
Defence rating (Gent / Aarhus): 0.65 / 1.29

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Gent vs Aarhus score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 5.3% 3.1% 1.8% 0.6% 0.2% 1 8.8% 9.7% 4.0% 1.2% 0.3% 2 10.8% 9.8% 4.5% 1.4% 0.4% 3 8.0% 7.2% 3.3% 1.0% 0.3% 4+ 7.4% 6.7% 3.1% 0.9% 0.3%

Rows: Gent goals. Columns: Aarhus goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Gent vs Aarhus goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 95%

Over 1.5 83%

Over 2.5 61%

Over 3.5 38%

Both teams to score: 54%
No goals (0–0): 5%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Gent vs Aarhus

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	Gent	60%	1.67
	Draw	23%	4.40
	Aarhus	17%	5.74
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	61%	1.65
	Under 2.5	39%	2.53
Both teams to score	Yes	54%	1.85
	No	46%	2.18
Double chance	1X (Gent or draw)	83%	1.21
	12 (either side)	77%	1.29
	X2 (draw or Aarhus)	40%	2.49
Handicap -1	Gent win by 2+	44%	2.29
	Push (exactly one goal)	23%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Compare the market for this pick

Where to bet on this match in Kenya

Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit

All betting sites

#	Welcome offer	Why it is here	Visit
1	50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply.	M-PESA Paybill 290059 Daily Jackpot Live betting	Get offer
2	First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply.	1,000+ events every day Live betting around the clock 30+ markets on live events	Get offer
3	100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply.	M-Pesa and Airtel Money deposits Live in-play betting Android and iOS app	Get offer
4	200% first deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply.	1,000+ events every day 30+ markets on live events 24/7 customer support	Get offer