HNK Hajduk Split vs Ajax Prediction & Betting Tips 15/10/2026

HNK Hajduk Split vs Ajax preview

HNK Hajduk Split faces Ajax with a 21% chance of winning compared to Ajax's 58%. The most likely scoreline is 1-2, which occurs with a 6% probability. The match could deviate from this prediction if either team fails to convert their expected goals, with Hajduk Split at 2.22 and Ajax at 2.20.

The model indicates a strong likelihood of Over 2.5 goals at 82% and both teams to score at 80%. This suggests an open game, but the confidence grade is C, indicating some uncertainty in the predictions. If either side's recent form changes, it could impact the outcome. Hajduk Split's recent results show L-W-W-L-W-W, while Ajax has D-W-W-L-W-W.

HNK Hajduk Split vs Ajax: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	HNK Hajduk Split	Draw	Ajax
Model	40%	21%	39%
Market	15%	20%	65%
Published	21%	21%	58%
Edge	+25%	0%	-26%

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.50, recorded 2026-10-10 — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update.

HNK Hajduk Split vs Ajax odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Ajax, 3 snapshots since 2026-10-09.

Opened 1.44Now 1.44 +0.00

Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
Selection	First	Latest	Move
HNK Hajduk Split	6.33	6.34	+0.01
Draw	4.58	4.58	+0.00
Ajax	1.44	1.44	+0.00

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

HNK Hajduk Split and Ajax expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

2.22HNK Hajduk Split

2.20Ajax

Total expected goals: 4.42
Attack rating (HNK Hajduk Split / Ajax): 1.30 / 1.96
Defence rating (HNK Hajduk Split / Ajax): 0.94 / 1.03

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

HNK Hajduk Split vs Ajax score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 1.8% 2.1% 2.9% 2.1% 2.0% 1 2.1% 6.5% 6.5% 4.7% 4.4% 2 3.0% 6.5% 7.2% 5.3% 4.8% 3 2.2% 4.8% 5.3% 3.9% 3.6% 4+ 2.0% 4.5% 4.9% 3.6% 3.3%

Rows: HNK Hajduk Split goals. Columns: Ajax goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

HNK Hajduk Split vs Ajax goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 98%

Over 1.5 94%

Over 2.5 82%

Over 3.5 64%

Both teams to score: 80%
No goals (0–0): 2%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for HNK Hajduk Split vs Ajax

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	HNK Hajduk Split	21%	4.76
	Draw	21%	4.88
	Ajax	58%	1.71
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	82%	1.22
	Under 2.5	18%	5.46
Both teams to score	Yes	80%	1.25
	No	20%	4.95
Double chance	1X (HNK Hajduk Split or draw)	42%	2.41
	12 (either side)	79%	1.26
	X2 (draw or Ajax)	79%	1.27
Handicap -1	Ajax win by 2+	23%	4.40
	Push (exactly one goal)	17%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

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Where to bet on this match in Kenya

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