HNK Hajduk Split vs Dinamo Zagreb preview
HNK Hajduk Split faces Dinamo Zagreb with a model 1X2 probability of 36% for Hajduk, 25% for a draw, and 38% for Dinamo. The most likely scoreline is 1-2, with a 7% chance. Both teams have a 70% probability of scoring, and there is also a 70% chance of Over 2.5 goals in the match.
Hajduk's recent form shows three wins in their last six matches, while Dinamo has only two wins in their last six. In their last four encounters, Hajduk has not secured a win, with Dinamo winning three times and one match ending in a draw. The confidence grade is C, indicating some uncertainty in the predictions.
HNK Hajduk Split vs Dinamo Zagreb: model vs market
| Source | HNK Hajduk Split | Draw | Dinamo Zagreb |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 49% | 23% | 28% |
| Market | 32% | 26% | 42% |
| Published | 36% | 25% | 38% |
| Edge | +18% | -3% | -14% |
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.26, recorded — the top price across the 9 books we record, each at its own last update.
HNK Hajduk Split vs Dinamo Zagreb odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Dinamo Zagreb, 6 snapshots since 2026-10-04.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| HNK Hajduk Split | 2.83 | 2.88 | +0.05 |
| Draw | 3.50 | 3.50 | -0.00 |
| Dinamo Zagreb | 2.24 | 2.20 | -0.04 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
HNK Hajduk Split and Dinamo Zagreb expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.63
- Attack rating (HNK Hajduk Split / Dinamo Zagreb)
- 1.33 / 1.33
- Defence rating (HNK Hajduk Split / Dinamo Zagreb)
- 0.97 / 1.01
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
HNK Hajduk Split vs Dinamo Zagreb score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: HNK Hajduk Split goals. Columns: Dinamo Zagreb goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
HNK Hajduk Split vs Dinamo Zagreb goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 70%
- No goals (0–0)
- 4%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for HNK Hajduk Split vs Dinamo Zagreb
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | HNK Hajduk Split | 36% | 2.75 |
| Draw | 25% | 3.94 | |
| Dinamo Zagreb | 38% | 2.61 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 70% | 1.42 |
| Under 2.5 | 30% | 3.36 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 70% | 1.43 |
| No | 30% | 3.30 | |
| Double chance | 1X (HNK Hajduk Split or draw) | 62% | 1.62 |
| 12 (either side) | 75% | 1.34 | |
| X2 (draw or Dinamo Zagreb) | 64% | 1.57 | |
| Handicap -1 | Dinamo Zagreb win by 2+ | 13% | 7.54 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 14% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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HNK Hajduk Split and Dinamo Zagreb recent form
HNK Hajduk Split
4W 0D 2L
Dinamo Zagreb
2W 2D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
HNK Hajduk Split at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-1-0
- Win rate
- 67%
- Goals for / match
- 2.33
- Goals against / match
- 0.67
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 3
- They have won 5 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 2.3 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 7 matches.
- 43% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Dinamo Zagreb away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-1-1
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 2.00
- Goals against / match
- 3.00
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 2
- They have won 4 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 2.3 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 6 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: HNK Hajduk Split at home only, Dinamo Zagreb away only.
HNK Hajduk Split vs Dinamo Zagreb head-to-head
Last 4 meetings: HNK Hajduk Split 0 · draws 1 · Dinamo Zagreb 3.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-09 | Dinamo Zagreb | 2-0 | HNK Hajduk Split | HNL |
| 2026-03-08 | HNK Hajduk Split | 1-3 | Dinamo Zagreb | HNL |
| 2025-12-06 | Dinamo Zagreb | 1-1 | HNK Hajduk Split | HNL |
| 2025-09-20 | HNK Hajduk Split | 0-2 | Dinamo Zagreb | HNL |
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