NK Osijek vs Istra 1961: model vs market
| Source | NK Osijek | Draw | Istra 1961 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 51% | 26% | 23% |
| Market | 47% | 26% | 27% |
| Published | 48% | 26% | 26% |
| Edge | +4% | 0% | -4% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.74 vs 1.12.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
- The market prices NK Osijek below the model: +4.1 percentage points of edge.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.02, recorded — the top price across the 9 books we record, each at its own last update.
NK Osijek vs Istra 1961 odds movement
Median bookmaker price on NK Osijek, 6 snapshots since 2026-10-04.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| NK Osijek | 1.96 | 1.96 | -0.00 |
| Draw | 3.64 | 3.50 | -0.14 |
| Istra 1961 | 3.31 | 3.40 | +0.09 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
NK Osijek and Istra 1961 expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.86
- Attack rating (NK Osijek / Istra 1961)
- 1.11 / 0.99
- Defence rating (NK Osijek / Istra 1961)
- 0.94 / 1.02
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
NK Osijek vs Istra 1961 score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: NK Osijek goals. Columns: Istra 1961 goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
NK Osijek vs Istra 1961 goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 57%
- No goals (0–0)
- 7%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for NK Osijek vs Istra 1961
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | NK Osijek | 48% | 2.09 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.83 | |
| Istra 1961 | 26% | 3.84 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 55% | 1.83 |
| Under 2.5 | 45% | 2.20 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 57% | 1.77 |
| No | 43% | 2.31 | |
| Double chance | 1X (NK Osijek or draw) | 74% | 1.35 |
| 12 (either side) | 74% | 1.35 | |
| X2 (draw or Istra 1961) | 52% | 1.92 | |
| Handicap -1 | NK Osijek win by 2+ | 29% | 3.50 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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| 1 |  |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
NK Osijek and Istra 1961 recent form
NK Osijek
3W 1D 2L
Istra 1961
2W 2D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
NK Osijek at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-0-0
- Win rate
- 100%
- Goals for / match
- 2.67
- Goals against / match
- 0.67
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 3
- They have won 5 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 2.4 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 7 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- 36% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Istra 1961 away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-2-1
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 1.33
- Goals against / match
- 1.67
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 3
- They have won 2 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 2.0 goals per match.
- They average 2.5 goals per game at home against 1.3 on the road.
- 30% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: NK Osijek at home only, Istra 1961 away only.
NK Osijek vs Istra 1961 head-to-head
Last 4 meetings: NK Osijek 1 · draws 0 · Istra 1961 3.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-10 | NK Osijek | 0-1 | Istra 1961 | HNL |
| 2026-03-06 | Istra 1961 | 0-1 | NK Osijek | HNL |
| 2025-12-07 | NK Osijek | 1-5 | Istra 1961 | HNL |
| 2025-09-21 | Istra 1961 | 2-1 | NK Osijek | HNL |
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