HNK Gorica vs Rudes preview
HNK Gorica hosts Rudes with a 56% chance of winning according to the model 1X2 probabilities. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, which reflects Gorica's expected goals of 1.70 compared to Rudes' 1.10. However, Gorica's recent form shows only one win in their last five matches, which could affect their performance.
Both teams to score has a probability of 56%, while Over 2.5 goals stands at 53%. Rudes has struggled recently, with only one win in their last six matches. This inconsistency could lead to a lower-scoring game than expected, impacting the overall predictions.
HNK Gorica vs Rudes: model vs market
| Source | HNK Gorica | Draw | Rudes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 50% | 26% | 24% |
| Market | 58% | 24% | 18% |
| Published | 56% | 24% | 20% |
| Edge | -8% | +2% | +5% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.70 vs 1.10.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.62, recorded — the top price across the 8 books we record, each at its own last update.
HNK Gorica vs Rudes odds movement
Median bookmaker price on HNK Gorica, 8 snapshots since 2026-10-03.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| HNK Gorica | 1.58 | 1.57 | -0.01 |
| Draw | 4.00 | 3.83 | -0.17 |
| Rudes | 5.22 | 5.00 | -0.22 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
HNK Gorica and Rudes expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.80
- Attack rating (HNK Gorica / Rudes)
- 0.65 / 0.97
- Defence rating (HNK Gorica / Rudes)
- 0.95 / 1.69
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
HNK Gorica vs Rudes score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: HNK Gorica goals. Columns: Rudes goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
HNK Gorica vs Rudes goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 56%
- No goals (0–0)
- 7%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for HNK Gorica vs Rudes
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | HNK Gorica | 56% | 1.78 |
| Draw | 24% | 4.09 | |
| Rudes | 20% | 5.12 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 53% | 1.88 |
| Under 2.5 | 47% | 2.13 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 56% | 1.79 |
| No | 44% | 2.26 | |
| Double chance | 1X (HNK Gorica or draw) | 80% | 1.24 |
| 12 (either side) | 76% | 1.32 | |
| X2 (draw or Rudes) | 44% | 2.27 | |
| Handicap -1 | HNK Gorica win by 2+ | 28% | 3.60 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
HNK Gorica and Rudes recent form
HNK Gorica
1W 2D 3L
Rudes
1W 1D 4L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
HNK Gorica at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-2-2
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 0.75
- Goals against / match
- 1.50
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 4
- They have won 1 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 0.6 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 8 matches.
- 36% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Rudes away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-0-4
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 0.75
- Goals against / match
- 2.75
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 4
- They have won 1 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 8 matches.
- 41% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: HNK Gorica at home only, Rudes away only.
HNK Gorica vs Rudes head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: HNK Gorica 6 · draws 2 · Rudes 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-29 | Rudes | 0-6 | HNK Gorica | Cup |
| 2024-07-27 | HNK Gorica | 3-0 | Rudes | Friendlies Clubs |
| 2024-05-10 | HNK Gorica | 2-1 | Rudes | HNL |
| 2024-03-04 | Rudes | 2-1 | HNK Gorica | HNL |
| 2023-11-26 | HNK Gorica | 3-0 | Rudes | HNL |
| 2023-09-02 | Rudes | 0-2 | HNK Gorica | HNL |
| 2023-06-28 | Rudes | 0-0 | HNK Gorica | Friendlies Clubs |
| 2022-01-22 | HNK Gorica | 1-3 | Rudes | Friendlies Clubs |
| 2019-05-03 | Rudes | 1-1 | HNK Gorica | HNL |
| 2019-03-02 | HNK Gorica | 3-1 | Rudes | HNL |
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