NK Slaven Belupo vs HNK Rijeka: model vs market
| Source | NK Slaven Belupo | Draw | HNK Rijeka |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 21% | 26% | 53% |
| Market | 19% | 24% | 57% |
| Published | 19% | 24% | 56% |
| Edge | +2% | +2% | -4% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.72 vs 1.00.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.65, recorded — the top price across the 8 books we record, each at its own last update.
NK Slaven Belupo vs HNK Rijeka odds movement
Median bookmaker price on HNK Rijeka, 4 snapshots since 2026-10-05.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| NK Slaven Belupo | 5.53 | 4.84 | -0.69 |
| Draw | 4.20 | 3.83 | -0.38 |
| HNK Rijeka | 1.52 | 1.60 | +0.09 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
NK Slaven Belupo and HNK Rijeka expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.72
- Attack rating (NK Slaven Belupo / HNK Rijeka)
- 0.79 / 1.09
- Defence rating (NK Slaven Belupo / HNK Rijeka)
- 1.32 / 0.82
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
NK Slaven Belupo vs HNK Rijeka score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: NK Slaven Belupo goals. Columns: HNK Rijeka goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
NK Slaven Belupo vs HNK Rijeka goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 53%
- No goals (0–0)
- 8%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for NK Slaven Belupo vs HNK Rijeka
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | NK Slaven Belupo | 19% | 5.16 |
| Draw | 24% | 4.08 | |
| HNK Rijeka | 56% | 1.78 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 51% | 1.95 |
| Under 2.5 | 49% | 2.05 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 53% | 1.88 |
| No | 47% | 2.13 | |
| Double chance | 1X (NK Slaven Belupo or draw) | 44% | 2.28 |
| 12 (either side) | 76% | 1.32 | |
| X2 (draw or HNK Rijeka) | 81% | 1.24 | |
| Handicap -1 | HNK Rijeka win by 2+ | 30% | 3.33 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 2 |  |
First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 4 |  |
200% first deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
NK Slaven Belupo and HNK Rijeka recent form
NK Slaven Belupo
2W 1D 3L
HNK Rijeka
3W 2D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
NK Slaven Belupo at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-0-1
- Win rate
- 67%
- Goals for / match
- 1.67
- Goals against / match
- 1.67
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 3
- They have won 2 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 0.7 goals per match.
- They average 1.7 goals per game at home against 0.0 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 7 matches.
- 53% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
HNK Rijeka away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-2-1
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 0.33
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 3
- They have won 3 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
- They average 3.0 goals per game at home against 0.3 on the road.
League matches this season before kick-off: NK Slaven Belupo at home only, HNK Rijeka away only.
NK Slaven Belupo vs HNK Rijeka head-to-head
Last 4 meetings: NK Slaven Belupo 0 · draws 2 · HNK Rijeka 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-04 | NK Slaven Belupo | 0-2 | HNK Rijeka | HNL |
| 2026-01-24 | HNK Rijeka | 2-2 | NK Slaven Belupo | HNL |
| 2025-10-18 | NK Slaven Belupo | 1-1 | HNK Rijeka | HNL |
| 2025-08-03 | HNK Rijeka | 2-0 | NK Slaven Belupo | HNL |
Other Matchday 9 fixtures
- HNK Gorica vs Rudes 2026-10-09
- HNK Hajduk Split vs Dinamo Zagreb — team news & stats 2026-10-10
- NK Osijek vs Istra 1961 2026-10-10
- NK Lokomotiva Zagreb v NK Varazdin — match page 2026-10-11