NK Lokomotiva Zagreb vs NK Varazdin: model vs market
| Source | NK Lokomotiva Zagreb | Draw | NK Varazdin |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 32% | 29% | 39% |
| Market | 32% | 28% | 41% |
| Published | 32% | 28% | 40% |
| Edge | 0% | +2% | -2% |
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.32, recorded — the top price across the 8 books we record, each at its own last update.
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb vs NK Varazdin odds movement
Median bookmaker price on NK Varazdin, 4 snapshots since 2026-10-05.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| NK Lokomotiva Zagreb | 2.87 | 2.89 | +0.02 |
| Draw | 3.40 | 3.33 | -0.07 |
| NK Varazdin | 2.26 | 2.26 | +0.00 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb and NK Varazdin expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.55
- Attack rating (NK Lokomotiva Zagreb / NK Varazdin)
- 0.98 / 1.04
- Defence rating (NK Lokomotiva Zagreb / NK Varazdin)
- 1.09 / 0.79
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb vs NK Varazdin score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: NK Lokomotiva Zagreb goals. Columns: NK Varazdin goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb vs NK Varazdin goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 53%
- No goals (0–0)
- 9%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for NK Lokomotiva Zagreb vs NK Varazdin
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | NK Lokomotiva Zagreb | 32% | 3.14 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.57 | |
| NK Varazdin | 40% | 2.49 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 47% | 2.14 |
| Under 2.5 | 53% | 1.88 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 53% | 1.89 |
| No | 47% | 2.13 | |
| Double chance | 1X (NK Lokomotiva Zagreb or draw) | 60% | 1.67 |
| 12 (either side) | 72% | 1.39 | |
| X2 (draw or NK Varazdin) | 68% | 1.47 | |
| Handicap -1 | NK Varazdin win by 2+ | 18% | 5.44 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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| 3 |  |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb and NK Varazdin recent form
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
1W 1D 4L
NK Varazdin
2W 3D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-1-0
- Win rate
- 67%
- Goals for / match
- 2.00
- Goals against / match
- 0.67
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 3
- They have won 2 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
NK Varazdin away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-1-1
- Win rate
- 33%
- Goals for / match
- 2.33
- Goals against / match
- 2.00
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 3
- They have won 4 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.9 goals per match.
- They average 2.3 goals per game on the road against 1.5 at home.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 7 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: NK Lokomotiva Zagreb at home only, NK Varazdin away only.
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb vs NK Varazdin head-to-head
Last 4 meetings: NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 1 · draws 2 · NK Varazdin 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-09 | NK Varazdin | 1-1 | NK Lokomotiva Zagreb | HNL |
| 2026-03-07 | NK Lokomotiva Zagreb | 1-1 | NK Varazdin | HNL |
| 2025-12-07 | NK Varazdin | 4-2 | NK Lokomotiva Zagreb | HNL |
| 2025-09-20 | NK Lokomotiva Zagreb | 1-0 | NK Varazdin | HNL |
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