CSKA Sofia vs Monaco Prediction & Betting Tips 15/10/2026

CSKA Sofia vs Monaco preview

CSKA Sofia hosts Monaco with a 27% chance of winning compared to Monaco's 51%. The most likely scoreline is 1-2, which reflects a 5% prediction from our model. CSKA Sofia has an expected goals figure of 2.13, while Monaco sits at 1.06.

The model suggests a 62% probability for Over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance for both teams to score. However, CSKA Sofia's recent form shows mixed results, with their last five matches yielding 2 wins, 2 draws, and 1 loss. In contrast, Monaco has been in strong form, winning their last six matches. This disparity in recent performance could influence the outcome.

CSKA Sofia vs Monaco: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	CSKA Sofia	Draw	Monaco
Model	61%	22%	17%
Market	16%	21%	63%
Published	27%	21%	51%
Edge	+45%	+1%	-46%

Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.53, recorded 2026-10-10 — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update.

CSKA Sofia vs Monaco odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Monaco, 3 snapshots since 2026-10-09.

Opened 1.48Now 1.48 +0.00

Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
Selection	First	Latest	Move
CSKA Sofia	5.88	5.88	+0.00
Draw	4.43	4.43	+0.00
Monaco	1.48	1.48	+0.00

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

CSKA Sofia and Monaco expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

2.13CSKA Sofia

1.06Monaco

Total expected goals: 3.19
Attack rating (CSKA Sofia / Monaco): 1.26 / 1.14
Defence rating (CSKA Sofia / Monaco): 0.79 / 1.02

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

CSKA Sofia vs Monaco score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 5.0% 3.4% 2.3% 0.8% 0.3% 1 7.8% 10.2% 4.9% 1.8% 0.6% 2 9.3% 9.9% 5.3% 1.9% 0.6% 3 6.6% 7.0% 3.7% 1.3% 0.4% 4+ 5.8% 6.1% 3.3% 1.2% 0.4%

Rows: CSKA Sofia goals. Columns: Monaco goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

CSKA Sofia vs Monaco goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 95%

Over 1.5 84%

Over 2.5 62%

Over 3.5 40%

Both teams to score: 59%
No goals (0–0): 5%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for CSKA Sofia vs Monaco

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	CSKA Sofia	27%	3.68
	Draw	21%	4.68
	Monaco	51%	1.94
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	62%	1.62
	Under 2.5	38%	2.62
Both teams to score	Yes	59%	1.71
	No	41%	2.42
Double chance	1X (CSKA Sofia or draw)	49%	2.06
	12 (either side)	79%	1.27
	X2 (draw or Monaco)	73%	1.37
Handicap -1	Monaco win by 2+	6%	15.43
	Push (exactly one goal)	11%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

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Where to bet on this match in Kenya

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