Updated

Bulgaria First League · Matchday 11

CSKA 1948 vs CSKA Sofia

· Bistritsa Stadium, Bistritsa· Referee Lyuboslav Lyubomirov

Full time2 – 3

Alin prediction was CSKA Sofia to win

Cblended with market oddsCorrect

Predicted score 1 – 2

8% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
CSKA 1948DrawCSKA Sofia

CSKA 1948 vs CSKA Sofia: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceCSKA 1948DrawCSKA Sofia
Model38%28%33%
Market24%27%48%
Published28%28%44%
Edge+4%0%-4%

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

CSKA 1948 vs CSKA Sofia odds movement

Median bookmaker price on CSKA Sofia, 16 snapshots since 2026-10-04.

Opened 1.87Now 1.92 +0.04
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
CSKA 19483.953.80-0.15
Draw3.383.38-0.01
CSKA Sofia1.871.92+0.04

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

CSKA 1948 and CSKA Sofia expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.39CSKA 1948
1.28CSKA Sofia
Total expected goals
2.68
Attack rating (CSKA 1948 / CSKA Sofia)
1.20 / 1.46
Defence rating (CSKA 1948 / CSKA Sofia)
0.82 / 0.90

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

CSKA 1948 vs CSKA Sofia score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 8.1% 7.6% 5.7% 2.4% 1.0% 1 8.3% 13.5% 7.9% 3.4% 1.4% 2 6.7% 8.6% 5.5% 2.4% 1.0% 3 3.1% 4.0% 2.6% 1.1% 0.5% 4+ 1.5% 1.9% 1.2% 0.5% 0.2%

Rows: CSKA 1948 goals. Columns: CSKA Sofia goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

CSKA 1948 vs CSKA Sofia goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 92%
Over 1.5 76%
Over 2.5 50%
Over 3.5 28%
Both teams to score
56%
No goals (0–0)
8%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for CSKA 1948 vs CSKA Sofia

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2CSKA 194828%3.59
Draw28%3.62
CSKA Sofia44%2.25
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.550%2.00
Under 2.550%2.00
Both teams to scoreYes56%1.80
No44%2.25
Double chance1X (CSKA 1948 or draw)56%1.80
12 (either side)72%1.38
X2 (draw or CSKA Sofia)72%1.39
Handicap -1CSKA Sofia win by 2+15%6.63
Push (exactly one goal)18%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

CSKA 1948 and CSKA Sofia recent form

CSKA 1948 4W 0D 2L
CSKA Sofia 3W 2D 1L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

CSKA 1948 at home

Record (W-D-L)
5-0-0
Win rate
100%
Goals for / match
2.40
Goals against / match
0.80
Clean sheets
1 of 5
  • They have won 7 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.9 goals per match.
  • They average 2.4 goals per game at home against 1.4 on the road.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.

CSKA Sofia away

Record (W-D-L)
2-3-0
Win rate
40%
Goals for / match
1.40
Goals against / match
0.40
Clean sheets
3 of 5
  • They have won 7 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 2.4 goals per match.
  • They average 3.4 goals per game at home against 1.4 on the road.
  • They have kept 4 clean sheets in 10 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.
  • They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
  • 57% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

League matches this season before kick-off: CSKA 1948 at home only, CSKA Sofia away only.

Expected lineups

CSKA 1948 lineup · 4-2-3-1

  1. 31 A. Bozhev
  2. 96 D. Grivić
  3. 4 A. Hoffmann
  4. 3 L. Dvali
  5. 6 Emerson
  6. 33 H. Cuellar
  7. 8 M. Zemzemi
  8. 77 Elias Franco
  9. 30 J. Meyer
  10. 11 G. Rusev
  11. 93 M. Diallo

Bench: Berna

CSKA 1948 vs CSKA Sofia head-to-head

Last 10 meetings: CSKA 1948 2 · draws 2 · CSKA Sofia 6.

CSKA 1948DrawsCSKA Sofia
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-05-13CSKA Sofia1-1CSKA 1948Bulgaria First League
2026-05-08CSKA 19480-1CSKA SofiaBulgaria First League
2026-02-14CSKA 19480-2CSKA SofiaBulgaria First League
2026-02-10CSKA Sofia2-0CSKA 1948Cup
2025-08-24CSKA Sofia0-1CSKA 1948Bulgaria First League
2024-12-07CSKA Sofia2-2CSKA 1948First League
2024-11-07CSKA 19481-3CSKA SofiaFirst League
2024-05-31CSKA Sofia0-2CSKA 1948First League
2024-03-09CSKA 19481-2CSKA SofiaFirst League
2023-09-17CSKA Sofia2-0CSKA 1948First League

Other Matchday 11 fixtures

Before and after this match