CSKA 1948 vs CSKA Sofia: model vs market
| Source | CSKA 1948 | Draw | CSKA Sofia |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 39% | 28% | 33% |
| Market | 23% | 27% | 49% |
| Published | 27% | 28% | 45% |
| Edge | +15% | +1% | -16% |
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.90, recorded — the top price across the 6 books we record, each at its own last update.
CSKA 1948 vs CSKA Sofia odds movement
Median bookmaker price on CSKA Sofia, 6 snapshots since 2026-10-04.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| CSKA 1948 | 3.95 | 3.95 | +0.00 |
| Draw | 3.38 | 3.36 | -0.02 |
| CSKA Sofia | 1.87 | 1.87 | +0.00 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
CSKA 1948 and CSKA Sofia expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.68
- Attack rating (CSKA 1948 / CSKA Sofia)
- 1.20 / 1.46
- Defence rating (CSKA 1948 / CSKA Sofia)
- 0.82 / 0.90
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
CSKA 1948 vs CSKA Sofia score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: CSKA 1948 goals. Columns: CSKA Sofia goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
CSKA 1948 vs CSKA Sofia goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 56%
- No goals (0–0)
- 8%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for CSKA 1948 vs CSKA Sofia
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | CSKA 1948 | 27% | 3.68 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.62 | |
| CSKA Sofia | 45% | 2.21 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 50% | 2.00 |
| Under 2.5 | 50% | 2.00 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 56% | 1.80 |
| No | 44% | 2.25 | |
| Double chance | 1X (CSKA 1948 or draw) | 55% | 1.82 |
| 12 (either side) | 72% | 1.38 | |
| X2 (draw or CSKA Sofia) | 73% | 1.37 | |
| Handicap -1 | CSKA Sofia win by 2+ | 15% | 6.72 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 18% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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| 2 |  |
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| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
CSKA 1948 and CSKA Sofia recent form
CSKA 1948
4W 0D 2L
CSKA Sofia
3W 2D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
CSKA 1948 at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 5-0-0
- Win rate
- 100%
- Goals for / match
- 2.40
- Goals against / match
- 0.80
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 5
- They have won 6 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.9 goals per match.
- They average 2.4 goals per game at home against 1.2 on the road.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
CSKA Sofia away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-3-0
- Win rate
- 40%
- Goals for / match
- 1.40
- Goals against / match
- 0.40
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 5
- They have won 7 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 2.6 goals per match.
- They average 3.4 goals per game at home against 1.5 on the road.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 9 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
- 53% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: CSKA 1948 at home only, CSKA Sofia away only.
CSKA 1948 vs CSKA Sofia head-to-head
Last 4 meetings: CSKA 1948 1 · draws 1 · CSKA Sofia 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-13 | CSKA Sofia | 1-1 | CSKA 1948 | Bulgaria First League |
| 2026-05-08 | CSKA 1948 | 0-1 | CSKA Sofia | Bulgaria First League |
| 2026-02-14 | CSKA 1948 | 0-2 | CSKA Sofia | Bulgaria First League |
| 2025-08-24 | CSKA Sofia | 0-1 | CSKA 1948 | Bulgaria First League |
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