Botev Plovdiv vs Slavia Sofia: model vs market
| Source | Botev Plovdiv | Draw | Slavia Sofia |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 47% | 29% | 24% |
| Market | 55% | 26% | 19% |
| Published | 53% | 26% | 20% |
| Edge | -8% | +3% | +5% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.47 vs 0.97.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.70, recorded — the top price across the 7 books we record, each at its own last update.
Botev Plovdiv vs Slavia Sofia odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Botev Plovdiv, 6 snapshots since 2026-10-04.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Botev Plovdiv | 1.80 | 1.67 | -0.13 |
| Draw | 3.45 | 3.59 | +0.14 |
| Slavia Sofia | 4.11 | 4.85 | +0.74 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Botev Plovdiv and Slavia Sofia expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.44
- Attack rating (Botev Plovdiv / Slavia Sofia)
- 1.33 / 0.83
- Defence rating (Botev Plovdiv / Slavia Sofia)
- 1.10 / 0.85
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Botev Plovdiv vs Slavia Sofia score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Botev Plovdiv goals. Columns: Slavia Sofia goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Botev Plovdiv vs Slavia Sofia goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 49%
- No goals (0–0)
- 10%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Botev Plovdiv vs Slavia Sofia
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Botev Plovdiv | 53% | 1.88 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.77 | |
| Slavia Sofia | 20% | 4.95 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 44% | 2.27 |
| Under 2.5 | 56% | 1.79 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 49% | 2.04 |
| No | 51% | 1.96 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Botev Plovdiv or draw) | 80% | 1.25 |
| 12 (either side) | 74% | 1.36 | |
| X2 (draw or Slavia Sofia) | 47% | 2.14 | |
| Handicap -1 | Botev Plovdiv win by 2+ | 24% | 4.12 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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| 2 |  |
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| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Botev Plovdiv and Slavia Sofia recent form
Botev Plovdiv
3W 0D 3L
Slavia Sofia
1W 3D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Botev Plovdiv at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-1-1
- Win rate
- 60%
- Goals for / match
- 1.60
- Goals against / match
- 1.20
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 5
- They have won 4 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- 44% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Slavia Sofia away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-1-1
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 1.25
- Goals against / match
- 0.50
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 4
- They have won 2 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
- They average 1.2 goals per game on the road against 0.6 at home.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 9 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 9 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Botev Plovdiv at home only, Slavia Sofia away only.
Botev Plovdiv vs Slavia Sofia head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: Botev Plovdiv 1 · draws 1 · Slavia Sofia 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-20 | Slavia Sofia | 0-1 | Botev Plovdiv | Bulgaria First League |
| 2025-10-18 | Botev Plovdiv | 1-1 | Slavia Sofia | Bulgaria First League |
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