Updated

Bulgaria First League · Matchday 11

Botev Plovdiv vs Slavia Sofia

· Hristo Botev Stadium, Plovdiv· Referee Nikola Popov

Full time1 – 0

Alin prediction was Botev Plovdiv to win

Cblended with market oddsCorrect

Predicted score 1 – 0

12% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
Botev PlovdivDrawSlavia Sofia

Botev Plovdiv vs Slavia Sofia: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceBotev PlovdivDrawSlavia Sofia
Model47%29%24%
Market60%23%17%
Published57%25%18%
Edge-3%+1%+2%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.47 vs 0.97.
  • Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Botev Plovdiv vs Slavia Sofia odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Botev Plovdiv, 14 snapshots since 2026-10-04.

Opened 1.80Now 1.53 -0.27
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Botev Plovdiv1.801.53-0.27
Draw3.454.00+0.55
Slavia Sofia4.115.60+1.49

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Botev Plovdiv and Slavia Sofia expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.47Botev Plovdiv
0.97Slavia Sofia
Total expected goals
2.44
Attack rating (Botev Plovdiv / Slavia Sofia)
1.33 / 0.83
Defence rating (Botev Plovdiv / Slavia Sofia)
1.10 / 0.85

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Botev Plovdiv vs Slavia Sofia score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 9.9% 7.2% 4.1% 1.3% 0.4% 1 11.5% 13.7% 6.1% 2.0% 0.6% 2 9.4% 9.1% 4.4% 1.4% 0.4% 3 4.6% 4.5% 2.2% 0.7% 0.2% 4+ 2.3% 2.3% 1.1% 0.4% 0.1%

Rows: Botev Plovdiv goals. Columns: Slavia Sofia goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Botev Plovdiv vs Slavia Sofia goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 90%
Over 1.5 71%
Over 2.5 44%
Over 3.5 23%
Both teams to score
49%
No goals (0–0)
10%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Botev Plovdiv vs Slavia Sofia

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Botev Plovdiv57%1.75
Draw25%4.08
Slavia Sofia18%5.46
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.544%2.27
Under 2.556%1.79
Both teams to scoreYes49%2.03
No51%1.97
Double chance1X (Botev Plovdiv or draw)82%1.22
12 (either side)75%1.33
X2 (draw or Slavia Sofia)43%2.33
Handicap -1Botev Plovdiv win by 2+24%4.13
Push (exactly one goal)23%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Botev Plovdiv and Slavia Sofia recent form

Botev Plovdiv 3W 0D 3L
Slavia Sofia 1W 3D 2L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Botev Plovdiv at home

Record (W-D-L)
3-1-1
Win rate
60%
Goals for / match
1.60
Goals against / match
1.20
Clean sheets
2 of 5
  • They have won 5 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
  • They have kept 3 clean sheets in 10 matches.
  • 43% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Slavia Sofia away

Record (W-D-L)
2-1-1
Win rate
50%
Goals for / match
1.25
Goals against / match
0.50
Clean sheets
2 of 4
  • They have won 2 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
  • They average 1.2 goals per game on the road against 0.7 at home.
  • They have kept 4 clean sheets in 10 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 3 of 10 matches.

League matches this season before kick-off: Botev Plovdiv at home only, Slavia Sofia away only.

Expected lineups

Botev Plovdiv lineup

  1. 10 A. Chandarov
  2. 7 Alberto Salido
  3. 27 B. Hein
  4. 29 D. Naumov
  5. 77 Lucas Araújo
  6. 19 Mauro Rodrigues
  7. 4 N. Soldo
  8. 90 S. Kalu
  9. 87 S. Petrov
  10. 82 V. Mendes
  11. 16 V. Vidolov

Bench: H. Slavkov, S. Shopov, Carlos Algarra, B. Kostov, G. Milanov, T. Awany, M. Senger, Franklin Mascote, C. Meotti, W. Chimezie, E. Ukaki

Slavia Sofia lineup

  1. 26 D. Burov
  2. 87 D. Ferraresso
  3. 77 E. Stoev
  4. 99 I. Andonov
  5. 73 I. Minchev
  6. 71 K. Stoyanov
  7. 24 L. Marin
  8. 4 N. Savić
  9. 95 V. Miletić
  10. 10 V. Nikolov
  11. 17 Vasil Kazaldzhiev

Bench: M. Georgiev, David Malembana, B. Todorov, R. Raychev, Y. Bornosuzov, E. Gogev, J. Semedo Varela, I. Antonov, Umaro Baldé, L. Ntumba

Botev Plovdiv vs Slavia Sofia head-to-head

Last 10 meetings: Botev Plovdiv 3 · draws 3 · Slavia Sofia 4.

Botev PlovdivDrawsSlavia Sofia
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-03-20Slavia Sofia0-1Botev PlovdivBulgaria First League
2025-10-18Botev Plovdiv1-1Slavia SofiaBulgaria First League
2025-03-03Slavia Sofia3-2Botev PlovdivFirst League
2024-10-19Botev Plovdiv1-0Slavia SofiaFirst League
2024-05-20Slavia Sofia3-1Botev PlovdivFirst League
2024-04-27Botev Plovdiv0-1Slavia SofiaFirst League
2024-03-02Slavia Sofia2-2Botev PlovdivFirst League
2023-09-01Botev Plovdiv3-1Slavia SofiaFirst League
2023-05-29Botev Plovdiv0-0Slavia SofiaFirst League
2023-05-13Slavia Sofia1-0Botev PlovdivFirst League

Other Matchday 11 fixtures

Before and after this match