Updated

Bulgaria First League · Matchday 11

Lokomotiv Sofia vs Lokomotiv Plovdiv

· Lokomotiv Stadium, Sofia· Referee Piskov·Gero

Full time1 – 1

Alin prediction was Lokomotiv Sofia to win

Cblended with market oddsMissed

Predicted score 1 – 0

14% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
Lokomotiv SofiaDrawLokomotiv Plovdiv

Lokomotiv Sofia vs Lokomotiv Plovdiv: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceLokomotiv SofiaDrawLokomotiv Plovdiv
Model47%30%22%
Market46%29%26%
Published46%29%25%
Edge0%0%-1%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.35 vs 0.85.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Lokomotiv Sofia vs Lokomotiv Plovdiv odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Lokomotiv Sofia, 13 snapshots since 2026-10-04.

Opened 2.12Now 2.05 -0.07
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Lokomotiv Sofia2.122.05-0.07
Draw3.253.25+0.00
Lokomotiv Plovdiv3.303.65+0.35

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Lokomotiv Sofia and Lokomotiv Plovdiv expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.35Lokomotiv Sofia
0.85Lokomotiv Plovdiv
Total expected goals
2.21
Attack rating (Lokomotiv Sofia / Lokomotiv Plovdiv)
0.97 / 0.60
Defence rating (Lokomotiv Sofia / Lokomotiv Plovdiv)
1.34 / 1.08

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Lokomotiv Sofia vs Lokomotiv Plovdiv score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 12.3% 8.1% 4.0% 1.1% 0.3% 1 13.6% 14.0% 5.4% 1.5% 0.4% 2 10.1% 8.6% 3.7% 1.0% 0.3% 3 4.6% 3.9% 1.7% 0.5% 0.1% 4+ 2.1% 1.8% 0.8% 0.2% 0.1%

Rows: Lokomotiv Sofia goals. Columns: Lokomotiv Plovdiv goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Lokomotiv Sofia vs Lokomotiv Plovdiv goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 88%
Over 1.5 66%
Over 2.5 38%
Over 3.5 18%
Both teams to score
44%
No goals (0–0)
12%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Lokomotiv Sofia vs Lokomotiv Plovdiv

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Lokomotiv Sofia46%2.17
Draw29%3.43
Lokomotiv Plovdiv25%4.04
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.538%2.64
Under 2.562%1.61
Both teams to scoreYes44%2.29
No56%1.78
Double chance1X (Lokomotiv Sofia or draw)75%1.33
12 (either side)71%1.41
X2 (draw or Lokomotiv Plovdiv)54%1.85
Handicap -1Lokomotiv Sofia win by 2+23%4.31
Push (exactly one goal)24%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Lokomotiv Sofia and Lokomotiv Plovdiv recent form

Lokomotiv Sofia 1W 2D 3L
Lokomotiv Plovdiv 1W 1D 4L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Lokomotiv Sofia at home

Record (W-D-L)
0-0-4
Win rate
0%
Goals for / match
0.75
Goals against / match
2.25
Clean sheets
0 of 4
  • They have won 1 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
  • They average 1.3 goals per game on the road against 0.8 at home.

Lokomotiv Plovdiv away

Record (W-D-L)
0-0-5
Win rate
0%
Goals for / match
0.00
Goals against / match
1.60
Clean sheets
0 of 5
  • They have won 2 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 0.5 goals per match.
  • They average 1.0 goals per game at home against 0.0 on the road.
  • They have failed to score in 6 of 10 matches.

League matches this season before kick-off: Lokomotiv Sofia at home only, Lokomotiv Plovdiv away only.

Expected lineups

Lokomotiv Sofia lineup · 4-2-3-1

  1. 99 M. Velichkov
  2. 14 A. Lyaskov
  3. 3 K. Kostov
  4. 91 R. Bidounga
  5. 6 Eirô
  6. 31 K. Stanoev
  7. 20 D. Kostadinov
  8. 7 S. Delev
  9. 11 A. Taoui
  10. 16 M. Medfai
  11. 29 A. Aralica

Bench: E. Dost, I. Yordanov, G. Minchev, M. Papazov, R. Daskalov, O. Oduko, A. Lyubenov, K. Miloshev, B. Katsarov, N. Penev

Lokomotiv Plovdiv lineup · 4-2-3-1

  1. 1 B. Milosavljevic
  2. 5 T. Pavlov
  3. 4 A. Chindriş
  4. 2 Adrián Cova
  5. 12 E. Ali
  6. 22 I. Ivanov
  7. 11 R. Leijten
  8. 10 J. Iliev
  9. 29 Christ Longville

Bench: D. Ali, M. Trdan, A. Velev, A. Fase, D. Kirashki, Yoan Dzhelepov, D. Mrankov, P. Umarbayev, P. Zovko, M. Petrović, J. Lamy

Lokomotiv Sofia vs Lokomotiv Plovdiv head-to-head

Last 10 meetings: Lokomotiv Sofia 0 · draws 5 · Lokomotiv Plovdiv 5.

Lokomotiv SofiaDrawsLokomotiv Plovdiv
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-04-03Lokomotiv Plovdiv1-0Lokomotiv SofiaBulgaria First League
2025-10-24Lokomotiv Sofia2-2Lokomotiv PlovdivBulgaria First League
2025-07-09Lokomotiv Plovdiv1-1Lokomotiv SofiaFriendlies Clubs
2025-05-02Lokomotiv Plovdiv1-1Lokomotiv SofiaFirst League
2025-02-23Lokomotiv Sofia0-1Lokomotiv PlovdivFirst League
2024-09-01Lokomotiv Plovdiv1-1Lokomotiv SofiaFirst League
2023-11-10Lokomotiv Plovdiv2-1Lokomotiv SofiaFirst League
2023-07-23Lokomotiv Sofia2-4Lokomotiv PlovdivFirst League
2023-02-25Lokomotiv Plovdiv1-0Lokomotiv SofiaFirst League
2022-08-15Lokomotiv Sofia0-0Lokomotiv PlovdivFirst League

Other Matchday 11 fixtures

Before and after this match