Lokomotiv Sofia vs Lokomotiv Plovdiv: model vs market
| Source | Lokomotiv Sofia | Draw | Lokomotiv Plovdiv |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 47% | 30% | 22% |
| Market | 48% | 28% | 24% |
| Published | 48% | 28% | 24% |
| Edge | -1% | +3% | -2% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.36 vs 0.85.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.05, recorded — the top price across the 7 books we record, each at its own last update.
Lokomotiv Sofia vs Lokomotiv Plovdiv odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Lokomotiv Sofia, 6 snapshots since 2026-10-04.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lokomotiv Sofia | 2.12 | 1.91 | -0.21 |
| Draw | 3.25 | 3.30 | +0.05 |
| Lokomotiv Plovdiv | 3.30 | 3.75 | +0.45 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Lokomotiv Sofia and Lokomotiv Plovdiv expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.21
- Attack rating (Lokomotiv Sofia / Lokomotiv Plovdiv)
- 0.97 / 0.60
- Defence rating (Lokomotiv Sofia / Lokomotiv Plovdiv)
- 1.33 / 1.08
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Lokomotiv Sofia vs Lokomotiv Plovdiv score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Lokomotiv Sofia goals. Columns: Lokomotiv Plovdiv goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Lokomotiv Sofia vs Lokomotiv Plovdiv goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 44%
- No goals (0–0)
- 12%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Lokomotiv Sofia vs Lokomotiv Plovdiv
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Lokomotiv Sofia | 48% | 2.09 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.52 | |
| Lokomotiv Plovdiv | 24% | 4.19 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 38% | 2.64 |
| Under 2.5 | 62% | 1.61 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 44% | 2.29 |
| No | 56% | 1.78 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Lokomotiv Sofia or draw) | 76% | 1.31 |
| 12 (either side) | 72% | 1.40 | |
| X2 (draw or Lokomotiv Plovdiv) | 52% | 1.91 | |
| Handicap -1 | Lokomotiv Sofia win by 2+ | 23% | 4.30 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 24% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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| 2 |  |
First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
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| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Lokomotiv Sofia and Lokomotiv Plovdiv recent form
Lokomotiv Sofia
1W 2D 3L
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
1W 1D 4L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Lokomotiv Sofia at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-0-4
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 0.75
- Goals against / match
- 2.25
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 4
- They have won 0 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They average 1.4 goals per game on the road against 0.8 at home.
Lokomotiv Plovdiv away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-0-5
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 0.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.60
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 5
- They have won 2 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 0.4 goals per match.
- They average 1.0 goals per game at home against 0.0 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 9 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Lokomotiv Sofia at home only, Lokomotiv Plovdiv away only.
Lokomotiv Sofia vs Lokomotiv Plovdiv head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: Lokomotiv Sofia 0 · draws 1 · Lokomotiv Plovdiv 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-03 | Lokomotiv Plovdiv | 1-0 | Lokomotiv Sofia | Bulgaria First League |
| 2025-10-24 | Lokomotiv Sofia | 2-2 | Lokomotiv Plovdiv | Bulgaria First League |
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