Updated

Bulgaria First League · Matchday 11

Botev Vratsa vs Spartak Varna

· Hristo Botev Stadium, Vratsa· Referee Stoyanov·Georgi

Full time0 – 1

Alin prediction was Botev Vratsa to win

Cblended with market oddsMissed

Predicted score 1 – 0

10% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
Botev VratsaDrawSpartak Varna

Botev Vratsa vs Spartak Varna: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceBotev VratsaDrawSpartak Varna
Model40%29%31%
Market51%28%21%
Published48%28%23%
Edge-3%0%+3%
  • Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Botev Vratsa vs Spartak Varna odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Botev Vratsa, 13 snapshots since 2026-10-04.

Opened 1.95Now 1.80 -0.15
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Botev Vratsa1.951.80-0.15
Draw3.203.30+0.10
Spartak Varna3.904.45+0.55

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Botev Vratsa and Spartak Varna expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.35Botev Vratsa
1.16Spartak Varna
Total expected goals
2.51
Attack rating (Botev Vratsa / Spartak Varna)
0.97 / 0.85
Defence rating (Botev Vratsa / Spartak Varna)
1.28 / 1.06

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Botev Vratsa vs Spartak Varna score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 9.4% 8.2% 5.5% 2.1% 0.8% 1 9.7% 14.0% 7.4% 2.9% 1.1% 2 7.4% 8.6% 5.0% 1.9% 0.7% 3 3.3% 3.8% 2.2% 0.9% 0.3% 4+ 1.5% 1.7% 1.0% 0.4% 0.1%

Rows: Botev Vratsa goals. Columns: Spartak Varna goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Botev Vratsa vs Spartak Varna goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 91%
Over 1.5 73%
Over 2.5 46%
Over 3.5 24%
Both teams to score
52%
No goals (0–0)
9%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Botev Vratsa vs Spartak Varna

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Botev Vratsa48%2.07
Draw28%3.53
Spartak Varna23%4.29
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.546%2.18
Under 2.554%1.85
Both teams to scoreYes52%1.92
No48%2.09
Double chance1X (Botev Vratsa or draw)77%1.30
12 (either side)72%1.40
X2 (draw or Spartak Varna)52%1.94
Handicap -1Botev Vratsa win by 2+19%5.30
Push (exactly one goal)21%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Botev Vratsa and Spartak Varna recent form

Botev Vratsa 2W 2D 2L
Spartak Varna 0W 3D 3L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Botev Vratsa at home

Record (W-D-L)
1-2-1
Win rate
25%
Goals for / match
0.50
Goals against / match
1.00
Clean sheets
2 of 4
  • They have won 2 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
  • They average 1.2 goals per game on the road against 0.5 at home.
  • They have failed to score in 4 of 10 matches.

Spartak Varna away

Record (W-D-L)
1-1-2
Win rate
25%
Goals for / match
1.25
Goals against / match
2.25
Clean sheets
2 of 4
  • They have won 2 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
  • They have kept 3 clean sheets in 10 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 4 of 10 matches.

League matches this season before kick-off: Botev Vratsa at home only, Spartak Varna away only.

Expected lineups

Botev Vratsa lineup

  1. 25 A. Buchkov
  2. 44 I. Goranov
  3. 12 I. Yurukov
  4. 17 J. Gallegos
  5. 94 M. Orlinov
  6. 16 M. Petkov
  7. M. Smolenski
  8. 36 M. Stoev
  9. 21 R. Tsonev
  10. 3 S. Sanyang
  11. 97 V. Naydenov

Spartak Varna lineup

  1. 44 A. Granchov
  2. 77 A. Ivanov
  3. 11 Boubacar Hanne
  4. 90 C. Okoh
  5. 5 D. Krastev
  6. 76 David Valverde
  7. 10 J. Lopes
  8. 6 José Ricardo Gomes Sousa
  9. 23 P. Iliev
  10. 19 S. Major
  11. 29 Z. Tindano

Botev Vratsa vs Spartak Varna head-to-head

Last 9 meetings: Botev Vratsa 4 · draws 3 · Spartak Varna 2.

Botev VratsaDrawsSpartak Varna
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-05-02Botev Vratsa2-1Spartak VarnaBulgaria First League
2025-12-04Botev Vratsa2-0Spartak VarnaBulgaria First League
2025-08-01Spartak Varna1-1Botev VratsaBulgaria First League
2025-04-01Spartak Varna1-0Botev VratsaFirst League
2024-09-13Botev Vratsa1-1Spartak VarnaFirst League
2023-05-13Botev Vratsa1-1Spartak VarnaFirst League
2023-02-25Spartak Varna2-1Botev VratsaFirst League
2022-08-15Botev Vratsa1-0Spartak VarnaFirst League
2022-06-22Botev Vratsa3-0Spartak VarnaFriendlies Clubs

Other Matchday 11 fixtures

Before and after this match