Botev Vratsa vs Spartak Varna preview
Botev Vratsa hosts Spartak Varna with a 45% chance of winning according to the model 1X2 probabilities. The expected goals suggest a close match, with Botev Vratsa at 1.35 and Spartak Varna at 1.16. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, which aligns with the 46% chance of Over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score.
However, the recent form indicates challenges for both teams. Botev Vratsa has two wins in their last six matches, while Spartak Varna has not won in their last six games. This could impact the outcome, making it possible for the match to deviate from the expected scoreline. The confidence grade is C, reflecting uncertainty in the predictions.
Botev Vratsa vs Spartak Varna: model vs market
| Source | Botev Vratsa | Draw | Spartak Varna |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 40% | 29% | 31% |
| Market | 47% | 29% | 24% |
| Published | 45% | 29% | 25% |
| Edge | -7% | 0% | +7% |
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.05, recorded — the top price across the 7 books we record, each at its own last update.
Botev Vratsa vs Spartak Varna odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Botev Vratsa, 6 snapshots since 2026-10-04.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Botev Vratsa | 1.95 | 1.95 | +0.00 |
| Draw | 3.20 | 3.12 | -0.08 |
| Spartak Varna | 3.90 | 3.90 | +0.00 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Botev Vratsa and Spartak Varna expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.51
- Attack rating (Botev Vratsa / Spartak Varna)
- 0.97 / 0.85
- Defence rating (Botev Vratsa / Spartak Varna)
- 1.28 / 1.06
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Botev Vratsa vs Spartak Varna score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Botev Vratsa goals. Columns: Spartak Varna goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Botev Vratsa vs Spartak Varna goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 52%
- No goals (0–0)
- 9%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Botev Vratsa vs Spartak Varna
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Botev Vratsa | 45% | 2.21 |
| Draw | 29% | 3.40 | |
| Spartak Varna | 25% | 3.94 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 46% | 2.18 |
| Under 2.5 | 54% | 1.85 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 52% | 1.92 |
| No | 48% | 2.09 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Botev Vratsa or draw) | 75% | 1.34 |
| 12 (either side) | 71% | 1.42 | |
| X2 (draw or Spartak Varna) | 55% | 1.83 | |
| Handicap -1 | Botev Vratsa win by 2+ | 19% | 5.30 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 2 |  |
First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 4 |  |
200% first deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Botev Vratsa and Spartak Varna recent form
Botev Vratsa
2W 2D 2L
Spartak Varna
0W 3D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Botev Vratsa at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-2-1
- Win rate
- 25%
- Goals for / match
- 0.50
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 4
- They have won 2 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
- They average 1.0 goals per game on the road against 0.5 at home.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 9 matches.
- 30% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Spartak Varna away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-1-2
- Win rate
- 25%
- Goals for / match
- 1.25
- Goals against / match
- 2.25
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 4
- They have won 2 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 9 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 9 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Botev Vratsa at home only, Spartak Varna away only.
Botev Vratsa vs Spartak Varna head-to-head
Last 3 meetings: Botev Vratsa 2 · draws 1 · Spartak Varna 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-02 | Botev Vratsa | 2-1 | Spartak Varna | Bulgaria First League |
| 2025-12-04 | Botev Vratsa | 2-0 | Spartak Varna | Bulgaria First League |
| 2025-08-01 | Spartak Varna | 1-1 | Botev Vratsa | Bulgaria First League |
Other Matchday 11 fixtures
- Lokomotiv Sofia vs Lokomotiv Plovdiv 2026-10-10
- Botev Plovdiv vs Slavia Sofia — team news & stats 2026-10-10
- Septemvri Sofia v Dunav Ruse — match page 2026-10-11
- Cherno More Varna vs Levski Sofia 2026-10-11
- CSKA 1948 v CSKA Sofia — match page 2026-10-11
- Ludogorets v Arda Kardzhali — match page 2026-10-12