Updated

Bulgaria First League · Matchday 11

Cherno More Varna vs Levski Sofia

· Ticha Stadium, Varna· Referee Radoslav Gidzhenov

Full time0 – 2

Alin prediction was Levski Sofia to win

Cblended with market oddsCorrect

Predicted score 0 – 1

11% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
Cherno More VarnaDrawLevski Sofia

Cherno More Varna vs Levski Sofia: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceCherno More VarnaDrawLevski Sofia
Model17%25%57%
Market17%26%57%
Published17%26%57%
Edge0%0%0%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.79 vs 0.89.
  • Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Cherno More Varna vs Levski Sofia odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Levski Sofia, 15 snapshots since 2026-10-04.

Opened 1.60Now 1.64 +0.03
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Cherno More Varna5.535.50-0.03
Draw3.703.51-0.19
Levski Sofia1.601.64+0.03

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Cherno More Varna and Levski Sofia expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

0.89Cherno More Varna
1.79Levski Sofia
Total expected goals
2.69
Attack rating (Cherno More Varna / Levski Sofia)
0.99 / 1.15
Defence rating (Cherno More Varna / Levski Sofia)
1.46 / 0.69

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Cherno More Varna vs Levski Sofia score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 7.9% 11.1% 10.9% 6.5% 4.4% 1 5.0% 12.0% 9.8% 5.8% 3.9% 2 2.7% 4.9% 4.4% 2.6% 1.8% 3 0.8% 1.5% 1.3% 0.8% 0.5% 4+ 0.2% 0.4% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1%

Rows: Cherno More Varna goals. Columns: Levski Sofia goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Cherno More Varna vs Levski Sofia goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 92%
Over 1.5 76%
Over 2.5 50%
Over 3.5 28%
Both teams to score
50%
No goals (0–0)
8%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Cherno More Varna vs Levski Sofia

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Cherno More Varna17%5.88
Draw26%3.83
Levski Sofia57%1.76
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.550%1.98
Under 2.550%2.02
Both teams to scoreYes50%1.98
No50%2.02
Double chance1X (Cherno More Varna or draw)43%2.32
12 (either side)74%1.35
X2 (draw or Levski Sofia)83%1.20
Handicap -1Levski Sofia win by 2+34%2.98
Push (exactly one goal)24%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Cherno More Varna and Levski Sofia recent form

Cherno More Varna 1W 2D 3L
Levski Sofia 3W 1D 2L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Cherno More Varna at home

Record (W-D-L)
1-1-2
Win rate
25%
Goals for / match
1.75
Goals against / match
2.25
Clean sheets
0 of 4
  • They have won 1 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
  • They average 1.8 goals per game at home against 0.7 on the road.
  • They have failed to score in 3 of 10 matches.
  • 37% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Levski Sofia away

Record (W-D-L)
3-1-0
Win rate
75%
Goals for / match
1.75
Goals against / match
0.75
Clean sheets
1 of 4
  • They have won 8 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 2.3 goals per match.
  • They average 2.8 goals per game at home against 1.8 on the road.
  • They have kept 5 clean sheets in 9 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 8 matches.

League matches this season before kick-off: Cherno More Varna at home only, Levski Sofia away only.

Expected lineups

Cherno More Varna lineup · 4-2-3-1

  1. 31 D. Hristov
  2. 50 E. Tombak
  3. 5 L. Squadrone
  4. 93 G. Ventsislavov
  5. 37 V. Kerchev
  6. 99 I. Bounaas
  7. 24 David Teles
  8. 8 A. Donchev
  9. 71 V. Panayotov
  10. 11 M. Achi
  11. 10 Celso Sidney

Bench: M. Banev, M. Barandas, J. Padilla, A. Todorov, I. Tasev, N. Kostadinov, João Bandaró, B. Beyhan, K. Mihaylov, K. Tomov

Levski Sofia lineup · 4-3-3

  1. 1 O. Vladimirov
  2. 3 Maicon
  3. 4 C. Makoun
  4. 18 G. Trdin
  5. 71 O. Kamdem
  6. 35 Serginho
  7. 19 E. El Moubarik
  8. 8 M. Grujić
  9. 17 Everton Bala
  10. 12 M. Sangaré
  11. 7 Reinaldo

Bench: Hevertton Santos, J. Perea, A. Oko-Flex, Álex Centelles, Aldair, David Kusso, S. Stoyanchov, K. Dimitrov, P. Hristov, A. Raychev, S. Vutsov

Cherno More Varna vs Levski Sofia head-to-head

Last 10 meetings: Cherno More Varna 4 · draws 3 · Levski Sofia 3.

Cherno More VarnaDrawsLevski Sofia
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-03-21Levski Sofia2-1Cherno More VarnaBulgaria First League
2025-10-19Cherno More Varna1-3Levski SofiaBulgaria First League
2025-05-26Cherno More Varna0-0Levski SofiaFirst League
2025-05-10Levski Sofia2-0Cherno More VarnaFirst League
2025-04-13Levski Sofia1-2Cherno More VarnaFirst League
2025-02-26Cherno More Varna1-0Levski SofiaCup
2024-11-03Cherno More Varna2-1Levski SofiaFirst League
2024-07-03Cherno More Varna0-0Levski SofiaFriendlies Clubs
2024-05-12Levski Sofia0-0Cherno More VarnaFirst League
2024-04-13Cherno More Varna3-1Levski SofiaFirst League

Other Matchday 11 fixtures

Before and after this match