Cherno More Varna vs Levski Sofia: model vs market
| Source | Cherno More Varna | Draw | Levski Sofia |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 17% | 25% | 57% |
| Market | 18% | 26% | 56% |
| Published | 18% | 26% | 56% |
| Edge | 0% | -1% | +1% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.79 vs 0.90.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.67, recorded — the top price across the 7 books we record, each at its own last update.
Cherno More Varna vs Levski Sofia odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Levski Sofia, 6 snapshots since 2026-10-04.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cherno More Varna | 5.53 | 5.10 | -0.43 |
| Draw | 3.70 | 3.52 | -0.18 |
| Levski Sofia | 1.60 | 1.63 | +0.02 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Cherno More Varna and Levski Sofia expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.68
- Attack rating (Cherno More Varna / Levski Sofia)
- 0.99 / 1.15
- Defence rating (Cherno More Varna / Levski Sofia)
- 1.46 / 0.69
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Cherno More Varna vs Levski Sofia score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Cherno More Varna goals. Columns: Levski Sofia goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Cherno More Varna vs Levski Sofia goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 50%
- No goals (0–0)
- 8%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Cherno More Varna vs Levski Sofia
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Cherno More Varna | 18% | 5.61 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.88 | |
| Levski Sofia | 56% | 1.77 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 50% | 1.99 |
| Under 2.5 | 50% | 2.01 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 50% | 1.99 |
| No | 50% | 2.02 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Cherno More Varna or draw) | 44% | 2.29 |
| 12 (either side) | 74% | 1.35 | |
| X2 (draw or Levski Sofia) | 82% | 1.22 | |
| Handicap -1 | Levski Sofia win by 2+ | 33% | 2.99 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 24% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Cherno More Varna and Levski Sofia recent form
Cherno More Varna
1W 2D 3L
Levski Sofia
3W 1D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Cherno More Varna at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-1-2
- Win rate
- 25%
- Goals for / match
- 1.75
- Goals against / match
- 2.25
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 4
- They have won 1 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game at home against 0.6 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 9 matches.
Levski Sofia away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-1-0
- Win rate
- 75%
- Goals for / match
- 1.75
- Goals against / match
- 0.75
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 4
- They have won 8 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 2.6 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 8 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 8 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Cherno More Varna at home only, Levski Sofia away only.
Cherno More Varna vs Levski Sofia head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: Cherno More Varna 0 · draws 0 · Levski Sofia 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-21 | Levski Sofia | 2-1 | Cherno More Varna | Bulgaria First League |
| 2025-10-19 | Cherno More Varna | 1-3 | Levski Sofia | Bulgaria First League |
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