Cherno More Varna vs Septemvri Sofia preview
In the fixture between Cherno More Varna and Septemvri Sofia, the 1X2 probabilities show Cherno More Varna at 51% to win, while Septemvri Sofia sits at 23%. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, with a 9% chance. Cherno More Varna has an expected goals figure of 1.68 compared to Septemvri Sofia's 1.44, indicating a competitive match.
However, recent form could affect the outcome. Cherno More Varna has recorded L-D-D-L-L-W in their last five matches, while Septemvri Sofia has L-L-L-L-D-W. The probabilities for Over 2.5 goals stand at 60%, and both teams to score is at 63%, suggesting potential for a high-scoring game, but the teams' recent performances may lead to a different result.
Cherno More Varna vs Septemvri Sofia: model vs market
| Source | Cherno More Varna | Draw | Septemvri Sofia |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 42% | 26% | 32% |
| Market | 56% | 25% | 19% |
| Published | 52% | 25% | 22% |
| Edge | -14% | 0% | +13% |
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.67, recorded — the top price across the 5 books we record, each at its own last update.
Cherno More Varna vs Septemvri Sofia odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Cherno More Varna, 15 snapshots since 2026-10-12.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cherno More Varna | 1.69 | 1.65 | -0.04 |
| Draw | 3.55 | 3.65 | +0.10 |
| Septemvri Sofia | 4.80 | 4.88 | +0.08 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Cherno More Varna and Septemvri Sofia expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.13
- Attack rating (Cherno More Varna / Septemvri Sofia)
- 0.92 / 0.90
- Defence rating (Cherno More Varna / Septemvri Sofia)
- 1.49 / 1.41
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Cherno More Varna vs Septemvri Sofia score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Cherno More Varna goals. Columns: Septemvri Sofia goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Cherno More Varna vs Septemvri Sofia goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 63%
- No goals (0–0)
- 5%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Cherno More Varna vs Septemvri Sofia
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Cherno More Varna | 52% | 1.91 |
| Draw | 25% | 3.94 | |
| Septemvri Sofia | 22% | 4.51 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 60% | 1.65 |
| Under 2.5 | 40% | 2.53 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 63% | 1.58 |
| No | 37% | 2.72 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Cherno More Varna or draw) | 78% | 1.28 |
| 12 (either side) | 75% | 1.34 | |
| X2 (draw or Septemvri Sofia) | 48% | 2.10 | |
| Handicap -1 | Cherno More Varna win by 2+ | 23% | 4.43 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Cherno More Varna and Septemvri Sofia recent form
Cherno More Varna
1W 2D 3L
Septemvri Sofia
1W 1D 4L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Cherno More Varna at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-1-3
- Win rate
- 20%
- Goals for / match
- 1.40
- Goals against / match
- 2.20
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 5
- They have won 1 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game at home against 0.7 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 10 matches.
- 37% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Septemvri Sofia away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-1-3
- Win rate
- 20%
- Goals for / match
- 0.80
- Goals against / match
- 1.60
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 5
- They have won 2 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 10 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Cherno More Varna at home only, Septemvri Sofia away only.
Cherno More Varna vs Septemvri Sofia head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: Cherno More Varna 1 · draws 1 · Septemvri Sofia 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-07 | Septemvri Sofia | 0-3 | Cherno More Varna | Bulgaria First League |
| 2025-09-27 | Cherno More Varna | 1-1 | Septemvri Sofia | Bulgaria First League |
Other Matchday 12 fixtures
- Dunav Ruse vs Spartak Varna — team news & stats 2026-10-24
- CSKA Sofia v Ludogorets — match page 2026-10-24
- Lokomotiv Plovdiv vs Slavia Sofia — team news & stats 2026-10-24
- Lokomotiv Sofia vs Botev Vratsa 2026-10-24
- CSKA 1948 v Botev Plovdiv — match page 2026-10-24
- Arda Kardzhali vs Levski Sofia — team news & stats 2026-10-24
Before and after this match
- Cherno More Varna, previous: Cherno More Varna – Levski Sofia, 2026-10-11
- Septemvri Sofia, previous: Septemvri Sofia v Dunav Ruse analysis