Arda Kardzhali vs Levski Sofia preview
In the fixture between Arda Kardzhali and Levski Sofia, the 1X2 probabilities show Levski Sofia at 53%, while Arda Kardzhali sits at 20%. The most likely scoreline is 0-1, which reflects Levski Sofia's stronger expected goals of 1.72 compared to Arda Kardzhali's 1.01.
Arda Kardzhali's recent form includes 2 wins and 4 losses, while Levski Sofia has 4 wins and 2 draws in their last 6 matches. Both teams to score stands at 53%, indicating a reasonable chance for goals from both sides. However, if Arda Kardzhali can improve their performance, they could challenge the expected outcome.
Arda Kardzhali vs Levski Sofia: model vs market
| Source | Arda Kardzhali | Draw | Levski Sofia |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 21% | 26% | 53% |
| Market | 20% | 28% | 53% |
| Published | 20% | 27% | 53% |
| Edge | +1% | -1% | 0% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.72 vs 1.01.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.76, recorded — the top price across the 5 books we record, each at its own last update.
Arda Kardzhali vs Levski Sofia odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Levski Sofia, 15 snapshots since 2026-10-12.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Arda Kardzhali | 4.78 | 4.72 | -0.05 |
| Draw | 3.33 | 3.34 | +0.01 |
| Levski Sofia | 1.75 | 1.75 | +0.00 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Arda Kardzhali and Levski Sofia expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.73
- Attack rating (Arda Kardzhali / Levski Sofia)
- 1.15 / 1.15
- Defence rating (Arda Kardzhali / Levski Sofia)
- 1.40 / 0.67
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Arda Kardzhali vs Levski Sofia score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Arda Kardzhali goals. Columns: Levski Sofia goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Arda Kardzhali vs Levski Sofia goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 53%
- No goals (0–0)
- 8%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Arda Kardzhali vs Levski Sofia
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Arda Kardzhali | 20% | 5.03 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.67 | |
| Levski Sofia | 53% | 1.89 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 51% | 1.95 |
| Under 2.5 | 49% | 2.05 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 53% | 1.88 |
| No | 47% | 2.14 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Arda Kardzhali or draw) | 47% | 2.12 |
| 12 (either side) | 73% | 1.37 | |
| X2 (draw or Levski Sofia) | 80% | 1.25 | |
| Handicap -1 | Levski Sofia win by 2+ | 30% | 3.36 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 2 |  |
First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 4 |  |
200% first deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Arda Kardzhali and Levski Sofia recent form
Arda Kardzhali
2W 1D 3L
Levski Sofia
3W 2D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Arda Kardzhali at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-1-1
- Win rate
- 60%
- Goals for / match
- 1.80
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 5
- They have won 5 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game at home against 1.2 on the road.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 10 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- 43% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Levski Sofia away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-1-0
- Win rate
- 80%
- Goals for / match
- 1.80
- Goals against / match
- 0.60
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 5
- They have won 8 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 2.3 goals per match.
- They average 2.8 goals per game at home against 1.8 on the road.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 9 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 8 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Arda Kardzhali at home only, Levski Sofia away only.
Arda Kardzhali vs Levski Sofia head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: Arda Kardzhali 0 · draws 0 · Levski Sofia 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-09 | Levski Sofia | 1-0 | Arda Kardzhali | Bulgaria First League |
| 2025-11-02 | Arda Kardzhali | 0-3 | Levski Sofia | Bulgaria First League |
Other Matchday 12 fixtures
- Dunav Ruse vs Spartak Varna — team news & stats 2026-10-24
- Cherno More Varna vs Septemvri Sofia 2026-10-24
- CSKA Sofia v Ludogorets — match page 2026-10-24
- Lokomotiv Plovdiv vs Slavia Sofia — team news & stats 2026-10-24
- Lokomotiv Sofia vs Botev Vratsa 2026-10-24
- CSKA 1948 v Botev Plovdiv — match page 2026-10-24
Before and after this match
- Arda Kardzhali, previous: Ludogorets vs Arda Kardzhali: odds and pick
- Levski Sofia, previous: Plzen vs Levski Sofia: odds and pick
- Levski Sofia, next: Levski Sofia v Jagiellonia analysis